TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126370
Played Sep 14Finished
Andrey Troyan
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711911119117511
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:33 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Holoborodko to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrey Troyan above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 92 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Yevhenii Holoborodko at 63.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H Andrey Troyan 2–10 Yevhenii Holoborodko Andrey Troyan has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Holoborodko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-10 in 12
Holoborodko
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Troyan 1649 vs Holoborodko 1594
Troyan
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Troyan 40% vs Holoborodko 80%
Holoborodko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Troyan 60% vs Holoborodko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Troyan +2 · Holoborodko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Holoborodko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holoborodko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTroyan 2.50 / Holoborodko 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Holoborodko)+1.3pp
Setka Cup · #13126370
Troyan2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog29% won 49 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back15% 15 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 66
Holoborodko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 117 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it69% 73 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTroyan2wins
AwayHoloborodko8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHoloborodko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTroyan20%1 of 5
AwayHoloborodko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Troyan5Holoborodko5n = 10split evenly
S2Troyan2Holoborodko8n = 10Holoborodko took 8 of 10
S3Troyan2Holoborodko8n = 10Holoborodko took 8 of 10
S4Troyan3Holoborodko5n = 8Holoborodko took 5 of 8
S5Troyan2Holoborodko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTroyanHoloborodkoT − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.343.0−3.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTroyanHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime468 / 985 vs 330 / 63247.5%52.2%468 / 985 vs 330 / 632Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoloborodkoTroyan 2.50/Holoborodko 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Holoborodko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holoborodko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 11:35A. Troyan4713781182Y. Holoborodko491111115113
WJan 12 · 09:35A. Troyan48711811113Y. Holoborodko4711811982
LJan 9 · 12:10A. Troyan35891171Y. Holoborodko3911116113
LJan 3 · 06:05A. Troyan381179111Y. Holoborodko4051111133
LJan 2 · 07:35A. Troyan2999110Y. Holoborodko351111133
LDec 30 · 06:05A. Troyan31116681Y. Holoborodko4291111113
LDec 29 · 07:00A. Troyan33981151Y. Holoborodko4111118113
LDec 26 · 09:30A. Troyan4211771162Y. Holoborodko49911117113
LDec 24 · 09:30A. Troyan2679100Y. Holoborodko341111123
WDec 21 · 08:05A. Troyan641111820143Y. Holoborodko54451122122
A. Troyan10
WSep 14 · 06:05V. Ishchuk1.801011871A. Troyan1.9112711113WSep 12 · 12:05V. Bilobrov2.204101151A. Troyan1.6111127113LSep 12 · 10:35A. Troyan2.3811117972Y. Kovshun1.53641111113LSep 12 · 08:35Y. Volkov1.5711113113A. Troyan2.25881151LSep 12 · 06:35I. Efimenko1.3681311113A. Troyan3.001111881WSep 12 · 05:35A. Kotiash2.5021090A. Troyan1.501112113WSep 11 · 11:30V. Bilobrov2.103890A. Troyan1.671111113WSep 11 · 10:00A. Troyan1.731111113O. Karpenko2.003850LSep 11 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.5011811113A. Troyan2.50611681WSep 11 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.672650A. Troyan2.101111113
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 14 · 05:05Y. Volkov2.0071161142Y. Holoborodko1.73118118113WSep 13 · 11:30A. Zozulia2.00111169112Y. Holoborodko1.73881111133LSep 13 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko2.636760A. Droshchynskyi1.441111113WSep 13 · 08:00O. Varlamov1.8068111182Y. Holoborodko1.91111186113WSep 13 · 06:00Y. Bondarenko2.2011861192Y. Holoborodko1.61311116113LSep 13 · 05:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.8011911113Y. Holoborodko1.91611931LSep 12 · 17:40A. Droshchynskyi1.5011118113Y. Holoborodko2.50941171WSep 12 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.501011513113V. Maksuta1.50128111182LSep 12 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.8010111012113Y. Holoborodko1.91127121082LSep 12 · 12:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.671111113Y. Holoborodko2.106780
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