TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130337
Played Sep 15Finished
Volodymyr Bilobrov
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114116116––––
Oleh Karpenko
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:14 and never touched — 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Karpenko to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Bilobrov above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 49 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Oleh Karpenko at 68.7%
49 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Bilobrov 3–7 Oleh Karpenko Volodymyr Bilobrov has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:14What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Karpenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Karpenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bilobrov 1567 vs Karpenko 1575
Karpenko
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bilobrov 20% vs Karpenko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bilobrov 30% vs Karpenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bilobrov -2 · Karpenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Karpenko) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBilobrov 2.75 / Karpenko 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Karpenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13130337
Bilobrov2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 20 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Karpenko1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite68% won 94 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it94% 49 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it81% 70 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBilobrov3wins
AwayKarpenko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKarpenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBilobrov50%3 of 6
AwayKarpenko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bilobrov6Karpenko4n = 10Bilobrov took 6 of 10
S2Bilobrov3Karpenko7n = 10Karpenko took 7 of 10
S3Bilobrov6Karpenko4n = 10Bilobrov took 6 of 10
S4Bilobrov1Karpenko4n = 5Karpenko took 4 of 5
S5Bilobrov0Karpenko3n = 3Karpenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBilobrovKarpenkoB − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.934.3−1.4per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBilobrovKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 160 vs 362 / 69645.6%52%73 / 160 vs 362 / 696Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpenkoBilobrov 2.75/Karpenko 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Karpenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Bilobrov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 06:30V. Bilobrov331111113O. Karpenko164660
LSep 11 · 06:30V. Bilobrov4511511992O. Karpenko44311811113
LAug 31 · 06:30V. Bilobrov4412911482O. Karpenko471011411113
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Bilobrov2781180O. Karpenko351113113
LAug 17 · 06:30V. Bilobrov2571080O. Karpenko341112113
WAug 13 · 13:30V. Bilobrov331111113O. Karpenko153480
LAug 11 · 04:30V. Bilobrov30115681O. Karpenko4181111113
LAug 4 · 08:35V. Bilobrov1852110O. Karpenko351111133
WJul 20 · 06:05V. Bilobrov3911611113O. Karpenko28511661
LJun 26 · 05:05V. Bilobrov3561111162O. Karpenko48118711113
V. Bilobrov10
LSep 15 · 05:30Y. Kovshun1.3611711113V. Bilobrov3.00711881LSep 12 · 12:05V. Bilobrov2.204101151A. Troyan1.6111127113WSep 12 · 10:05A. Kotiash1.739720V. Bilobrov2.001111113LSep 12 · 08:05I. Efimenko1.2051111113V. Bilobrov4.33118521LSep 12 · 07:05V. Bilobrov2.505760Y. Kovshun1.501111113WSep 12 · 06:05Y. Volkov1.3671112752V. Bilobrov3.001181011113LSep 11 · 11:30V. Bilobrov2.103890A. Troyan1.671111113WSep 11 · 09:30A. Kotiash1.409720V. Bilobrov2.751111113LSep 11 · 07:30Y. Volkov1.4031116113V. Bilobrov2.751161481LSep 11 · 06:30V. Bilobrov3.0011511992O. Karpenko1.36311811113
O. Karpenko10
LSep 15 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov1.8311211113O. Karpenko1.83811591WSep 14 · 12:05A. Troyan1.67541111102O. Karpenko2.10111155123LSep 14 · 10:35O. Karpenko2.75114371Y. Holoborodko1.4091111113LSep 14 · 08:35V. Ishchuk1.61116128113O. Karpenko2.20211101162LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.401114113O. Karpenko2.7561270WSep 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.4011881152O. Karpenko2.75111117113LSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.7311149113O. Karpenko2.005121131LSep 11 · 10:00A. Troyan1.731111113O. Karpenko2.003850WSep 11 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.2011184862O. Karpenko1.61216111193WSep 11 · 06:30V. Bilobrov3.0011511992O. Karpenko1.36311811113
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