TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130364
Played Sep 15Finished
Valerii Kolesnykov
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118211115119––
Oleh Karpenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Karpenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Kolesnykov above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 68 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Oleh Karpenko at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Kolesnykov 39–37 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 37 of their 76 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:16What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Karpenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-37 in 76
Kolesnykov
Correct
gap of 2 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnykov 1578 vs Karpenko 1603
Karpenko
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnykov 80% vs Karpenko 40%
Kolesnykov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnykov 60% vs Karpenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnykov +2 · Karpenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karpenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnykov 1.83 / Karpenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Karpenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13130364
Kolesnykov1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Karpenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolesnykov4wins
AwayKarpenko6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKarpenko leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnykovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKarpenko75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnykov2Karpenko8n = 10Karpenko took 8 of 10
S2Kolesnykov7Karpenko3n = 10Kolesnykov took 7 of 10
S3Kolesnykov3Karpenko7n = 10Karpenko took 7 of 10
S4Kolesnykov4Karpenko3n = 7Kolesnykov took 4 of 7
S5Kolesnykov3Karpenko3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolesnykovKarpenkoKolesnykov − KarpenkoBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.040.8−4.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnykovKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 664 vs 362 / 69453.3%52.2%354 / 664 vs 362 / 694Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpenkoKolesnykov 1.83/Karpenko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Karpenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolesnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 06:05V. Kolesnykov4431381282O. Karpenko5411111110113
WJul 27 · 06:35V. Kolesnykov40211511113O. Karpenko4311611872
LJul 20 · 10:05V. Kolesnykov4141181172O. Karpenko47118116113
WJul 17 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov511111117113O. Karpenko4813781192
LJul 14 · 08:30V. Kolesnykov30511681O. Karpenko3811511113
WJul 13 · 09:05V. Kolesnykov46119114113O. Karpenko4481161182
LJun 29 · 11:00V. Kolesnykov163850O. Karpenko331111113
LJun 26 · 10:35V. Kolesnykov4251251192O. Karpenko461110113113
LJun 23 · 09:00V. Kolesnykov177550O. Karpenko331111113
WJun 22 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov331111113O. Karpenko227690
V. Kolesnykov10
WSep 10 · 11:05O. Volynets2.00102100V. Kolesnykov1.731211123WSep 10 · 10:05V. Kolesnykov1.731111113V. Vietrov2.005250LSep 10 · 09:05V. Kolesnykov3.00781141A. Troyan1.3611116113WSep 10 · 07:35V. Kolesnykov2.2512411123D. Khairov1.5710118101WSep 10 · 05:35V. Kolesnykov1.61111013113O. Osadchyi2.208121171LSep 7 · 10:30O. Osadchyi2.5011119143V. Kolesnykov1.509811121WSep 7 · 09:30V. Kolesnykov1.7381111113S. Solomko2.00118891WSep 7 · 08:30V. Kolesnykov2.1061111113O. Volynets1.67119871LSep 7 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov2.10124591D. Khairov1.67101111113LSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123
O. Karpenko10
WSep 14 · 12:05A. Troyan1.67541111102O. Karpenko2.10111155123LSep 14 · 10:35O. Karpenko2.75114371Y. Holoborodko1.4091111113LSep 14 · 08:35V. Ishchuk1.61116128113O. Karpenko2.20211101162LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.401114113O. Karpenko2.7561270WSep 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.4011881152O. Karpenko2.75111117113LSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.7311149113O. Karpenko2.005121131LSep 11 · 10:00A. Troyan1.731111113O. Karpenko2.003850WSep 11 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.2011184862O. Karpenko1.61216111193WSep 11 · 06:30V. Bilobrov3.0011511992O. Karpenko1.36311811113WSep 11 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.4011591192O. Karpenko2.75911119113
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