TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142677
Played Sep 17Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1513114116––––
Fedir Voinarovskyi
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeFedir Voinarovskyi to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Fedir Voinarovskyi below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 60 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Fedir Voinarovskyi at 59.6%
60 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 5–8 Fedir Voinarovskyi Oleksandr Leonenko has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:12What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Voinarovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Voinarovskyi
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1473 vs Voinarovskyi 1436
Leonenko
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 60% vs Voinarovskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 40% vs Voinarovskyi 60%
Voinarovskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko +2 · Voinarovskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Voinarovskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 2.38 / Voinarovskyi 1.53
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Voinarovskyi)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13142677
Leonenko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 68 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 54
Voinarovskyi1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 42 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it74% 34 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonenko3wins
AwayVoinarovskyi7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVoinarovskyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayVoinarovskyi71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko3Voinarovskyi7n = 10Voinarovskyi took 7 of 10
S2Leonenko4Voinarovskyi6n = 10Voinarovskyi took 6 of 10
S3Leonenko5Voinarovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Leonenko2Voinarovskyi3n = 5Voinarovskyi took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonenkoVoinarovskyiL − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.536.6−4.1per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoVoinarovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 838 vs 183 / 35751.8%51.3%434 / 838 vs 183 / 357Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VoinarovskyiLeonenko 2.38/Voinarovskyi 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.4%
Voinarovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 06:05O. Leonenko371511113F. Voinarovskyi2313460
WSep 10 · 10:20O. Leonenko4581411123F. Voinarovskyi3911126101
LAug 27 · 06:50O. Leonenko3311111552F. Voinarovskyi49711911113
LMay 28 · 06:20O. Leonenko237790F. Voinarovskyi331111113
LMay 25 · 11:20O. Leonenko184770F. Voinarovskyi331111113
WMay 18 · 05:50O. Leonenko4281111123F. Voinarovskyi351186101
LMar 23 · 08:20O. Leonenko4081111101F. Voinarovskyi4511139123
LMar 16 · 10:50O. Leonenko2041060F. Voinarovskyi341112113
LMar 9 · 10:20O. Leonenko228860F. Voinarovskyi331111113
LJan 29 · 09:20O. Leonenko4511119592F. Voinarovskyi42541111113
O. Leonenko10
WSep 12 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.20411111103S. Solomko1.6111511982WSep 12 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.6791111892O. Leonenko2.10118611113LSep 12 · 14:30V. Smyk2.2511311343O. Leonenko1.5791161112WSep 12 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.5011211113O. Tymofeev1.28411581LSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.00116971E. Populovskyi1.7391111113LSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122WSep 11 · 15:30O. Leonenko2.10111168133S. Solomko1.67661111112LSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801LSep 11 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.251111641O. Tymofeev1.3391311113LSep 10 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.5011711752O. Ovsiienko2.50911711113
F. Voinarovskyi10
LSep 16 · 18:00F. Voinarovskyi1.831171061V. Smyk1.8371112113WSep 16 · 16:30F. Voinarovskyi3.2511116113B. Zaika1.33481181LSep 16 · 15:00F. Voinarovskyi2.754680O. Tymofeev1.401111113WSep 16 · 13:30F. Voinarovskyi1.531111113O. Ovsiienko2.385570WSep 16 · 12:00F. Voinarovskyi1.33118811113A. Kurtenko3.2521111762WSep 10 · 11:50F. Voinarovskyi1.441111113K. Klymenko2.639980LSep 10 · 10:20F. Voinarovskyi1.4011126101O. Leonenko2.7581411123LSep 10 · 08:50F. Voinarovskyi3.008780A. Martyniuk1.361111113WSep 10 · 07:20F. Voinarovskyi1.671114115113M. Stetsenko2.1081671162WSep 10 · 05:50F. Voinarovskyi1.531111122123O. Ovsiienko2.38251411102
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