TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141260
Played Sep 17Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
2.17
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1186111171719115
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.56
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:02 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
106 points played in total.
Set by set
1186111171719115
H2H Jerzy Michalik 5–4 Kacper Kwiatkowski Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:02What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.56 (58%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1370 vs Kwiatkowski 1484
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 20% vs Kwiatkowski 0%
Michalik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Kwiatkowski 30%
Michalik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik -3 · Kwiatkowski -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (0%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 2.17 / Kwiatkowski 1.56
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13141260
Michalik2.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 108 of 312
Down 0–1, comes back18% 32 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 105
Kwiatkowski1.56
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 36 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it78% 28 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMichalik5wins
AwayKwiatkowski4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderMichalik leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik100%4 of 4
AwayKwiatkowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik4Kwiatkowski5n = 9Kwiatkowski took 5 of 9
S2Michalik3Kwiatkowski6n = 9Kwiatkowski took 6 of 9
S3Michalik4Kwiatkowski5n = 9Kwiatkowski took 5 of 9
S4Michalik3Kwiatkowski1n = 4Michalik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricMichalikKwiatkowskiM − KBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match34.935.2−0.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime550 / 1167 vs 111 / 25347.1%43.9%550 / 1167 vs 111 / 253Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiMichalik 2.17/Kwiatkowski 1.56
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.6%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik153750K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WAug 12 · 02:20J. Michalik4111811113K. Kwiatkowski34711881
WJul 31 · 01:25J. Michalik351111133K. Kwiatkowski2357110
LJul 30 · 19:20J. Michalik35961191K. Kwiatkowski4111118113
LJul 27 · 23:20J. Michalik205960K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WJul 23 · 02:10J. Michalik331111113K. Kwiatkowski176740
WJul 22 · 20:05J. Michalik561151118113K. Kwiatkowski55611131692
WJul 15 · 24:45J. Michalik528111111113K. Kwiatkowski4611613972
LJul 14 · 02:10J. Michalik2711880K. Kwiatkowski351311113
J. Michalik10
WSep 17 · 17:30J. Michalik2.0011911153J. Zelezik1.739117131LSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik1.76611851M. Brunner1.9611311113LSep 16 · 03:05J. Michalik1.861181451J. Skorupa1.7891116113LSep 16 · 01:55J. Michalik1.92081141M. Baran1.7211118113WSep 16 · 24:45K. Rybak3.951111681J. Michalik1.2013611113LSep 15 · 23:55J. Michalik1.621147111M. Karpiuk2.0791111133WSep 15 · 22:20J. Michalik1.851111143P. Gesiarz1.8599120WSep 15 · 21:05J. Michalik1.8611113113J. Skorupa1.80971181WSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641WSep 15 · 18:45M. Brunner2.0513101481J. Michalik1.66151212113
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski2.01119851J. Zelezik1.6671111113LSep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.37311141132A. Staniczek2.89116167113LSep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.916119121A. Fomin1.8011711143LSep 17 · 24:35J. Skorupa2.0011145113K. Kwiatkowski1.734121181LSep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.25611119113K. Kwiatkowski1.5711961152LSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113LSep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57351111122M. Lewczuk2.25111198143WSep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83117126143A. Fomin1.836111011122WSep 16 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.2511114492K. Kwiatkowski1.33841111113LSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312
Upcoming Matches
J. Michalik
Sep 17 · 20:20J. Michalik1.91A. Krezel1.80—Sep 17 · 21:30J. Michalik4.35D. Molenda1.15—Sep 17 · 23:05J. Michalik1.50A. Staniczek2.31—Sep 18 · 24:20J. Michalik1.70A. Krezel1.95—Sep 18 · 01:10J. Michalik2.44J. Zelezik1.45—Sep 18 · 02:45J. Michalik1.50A. Staniczek2.31—Sep 18 · 03:30J. Michalik2.70H. Tkaczyk1.38—Sep 18 · 04:20J. Michalik2.10K. Kwiatkowski1.53—
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.74A. Krezel1.95—Sep 17 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski3.10D. Molenda1.30—Sep 17 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.34A. Staniczek2.85—Sep 18 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski2.23H. Tkaczyk1.54—Sep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski2.01J. Zelezik1.66—Sep 18 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski1.53A. Krezel2.24—Sep 18 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.53J. Michalik2.10—
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