TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141261
Played Sep 17Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.37
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
3111161416117311
Adam Staniczek
Away
2.89
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:02 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
93 points played in total.
Set by set
3111161416117311
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 6–6 Adam Staniczek Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:02What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.37 (68%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1502 vs Staniczek 1303
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 199 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 0% vs Staniczek 60%
Staniczek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Staniczek 60%
Staniczek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -5 · Staniczek -1
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (35%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.37 / Staniczek 2.89
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13141261
Kwiatkowski1.37
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 36 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it78% 28 of 36
Staniczek2.89
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog25% won 115 of 453
Down 0–1, comes back11% 32 of 287
Down 0–2, comes back2% 5 of 214
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski5wins
AwayStaniczek5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayStaniczek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski3Staniczek7n = 10Staniczek took 7 of 10
S2Kwiatkowski5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kwiatkowski4Staniczek6n = 10Staniczek took 6 of 10
S4Kwiatkowski3Staniczek2n = 5Kwiatkowski took 3 of 5
S5Kwiatkowski2Staniczek1n = 3Kwiatkowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiStaniczekK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.437.0−1.6per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 252 vs 367 / 100944.1%36.4%111 / 252 vs 367 / 1009Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.833.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.37/Staniczek 2.89
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.6%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Staniczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski331111113A. Staniczek207850
WAug 19 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski485111011113A. Staniczek4711612992
LJul 29 · 22:10K. Kwiatkowski2231360A. Staniczek371115113
WJul 29 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski43511115113A. Staniczek4211481182
WJul 27 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski44111011123A. Staniczek325125101
WJul 26 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski48101512113A. Staniczek4312131081
LJul 22 · 23:20K. Kwiatkowski2899100A. Staniczek341111123
LJul 22 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski4312116772A. Staniczek481051111113
LJul 13 · 02:35K. Kwiatkowski194960A. Staniczek331111113
LJul 12 · 18:10K. Kwiatkowski2681080A. Staniczek341112113
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 17 · 18:45J. Michalik2.171161117113K. Kwiatkowski1.5681171952LSep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.916119121A. Fomin1.8011711143LSep 17 · 24:35J. Skorupa2.0011145113K. Kwiatkowski1.734121181LSep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.25611119113K. Kwiatkowski1.5711961152LSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113LSep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57351111122M. Lewczuk2.25111198143WSep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83117126143A. Fomin1.836111011122WSep 16 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.2511114492K. Kwiatkowski1.33841111113LSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312WSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski1.4411157133M. Baran2.6361311111
A. Staniczek10
LSep 17 · 05:05A. Krezel1.59891311113A. Staniczek2.12111111492WSep 17 · 03:55A. Staniczek1.391121411113K. Rybak2.6541116892WSep 17 · 02:45M. Warzecha2.9010440A. Staniczek1.361211113LSep 17 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.3711911153A. Staniczek2.758119131WSep 16 · 23:55W. Stechly2.751151041A. Staniczek1.3671112113WSep 16 · 23:05M. Warzecha1.21971161A. Staniczek3.6511113113WSep 16 · 21:55A. Staniczek1.41119414113K. Rybak2.60911111252LSep 16 · 20:45A. Krezel1.601111113A. Staniczek2.108570LSep 16 · 19:30Z. Nocun1.301111113A. Staniczek3.004540WSep 16 · 17:55J. Slawomir1.445680A. Staniczek2.401111113
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