TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139882
Played Sep 17Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111179111214––
Andriej Fomin
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 81 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 5–6 Andriej Fomin Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kwiatkowski beat Fomin 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:00What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1502 vs Fomin 1529
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 20% vs Fomin 60%
Fomin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 50% vs Fomin 70%
Fomin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -4 · Fomin +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kwiatkowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.91 / Fomin 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13139882
Kwiatkowski1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 66 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 67
Fomin1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 275 of 379
Up 2–0, closes it98% 155 of 158
Up 1–0, closes it90% 213 of 238
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski5wins
AwayFomin5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski80%4 of 5
AwayFomin80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski5Fomin5n = 10split evenly
S2Kwiatkowski3Fomin7n = 10Fomin took 7 of 10
S3Kwiatkowski5Fomin5n = 10split evenly
S4Kwiatkowski4Fomin5n = 9Fomin took 5 of 9
S5Kwiatkowski4Fomin2n = 6Kwiatkowski took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiFominK − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.647.4−1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiFominBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 252 vs 535 / 91244.1%58.7%111 / 252 vs 535 / 912Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.91/Fomin 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski386119121A. Fomin4311711143
WSep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski50117126143A. Fomin506111011122
LAug 24 · 23:30K. Kwiatkowski4511811962A. Fomin49911711113
WAug 24 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski561531116113A. Fomin56131171872
WJul 29 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski50118911113A. Fomin4991111992
LJul 29 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski611711141182A. Fomin64199169113
WJul 27 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski571711711113A. Fomin5119811672
LJul 22 · 21:00K. Kwiatkowski2869130A. Fomin371111153
LJul 22 · 16:35K. Kwiatkowski31751181A. Fomin4211119113
WJul 10 · 01:25K. Kwiatkowski4011711113A. Fomin33911491
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 17 · 24:35J. Skorupa2.0011145113K. Kwiatkowski1.734121181LSep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.25611119113K. Kwiatkowski1.5711961152LSep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.36128111182M. Baran3.001011136113LSep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57351111122M. Lewczuk2.25111198143WSep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83117126143A. Fomin1.836111011122WSep 16 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.2511114492K. Kwiatkowski1.33841111113LSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312WSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski1.4411157133M. Baran2.6361311111WSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113
A. Fomin10
WSep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.208711101A. Fomin1.6111119123WSep 16 · 23:20J. Skorupa2.631149111A. Fomin1.4491111133WSep 16 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.258930A. Fomin1.571111113LSep 16 · 21:00M. Machelski2.25651513113A. Fomin1.571111131182LSep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83117126143A. Fomin1.836111011122LSep 16 · 19:20M. Baran2.201161011113A. Fomin1.6191112972WSep 16 · 17:20A. Skupinski3.5011811652A. Fomin1.28811911113WSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113WSep 16 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.20109120A. Fomin1.611211143WSep 13 · 02:45M. Wolny2.056760A. Fomin1.651111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 17 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——Sep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——Sep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski—A. Krezel——Sep 17 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski—D. Molenda——Sep 17 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 18 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——Sep 18 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski—A. Krezel——Sep 18 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——
A. Fomin
Nothing scheduled
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