TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139324
Played Sep 16Finished
Zdenek Zahradka
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81112101513811411
Jakub Dvorak
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:27 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Dvorak to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Zahradka above · Jakub Dvorak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 103 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Jakub Dvorak at 56.5%
103 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Zahradka 37–45 Jakub Dvorak Zdenek Zahradka has won 37 of their 82 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 08:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-45 in 82
Dvorak
Correct
gap of 8 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zahradka 1417 vs Dvorak 1481
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zahradka 60% vs Dvorak 40%
Zahradka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zahradka 40% vs Dvorak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zahradka -2 · Dvorak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZahradka 2.00 / Dvorak 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Dvorak)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13139324
Zahradka2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 70 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back14% 16 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 62
Dvorak1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 26 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZahradka2wins
AwayDvorak8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZahradkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDvorak100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zahradka2Dvorak8n = 10Dvorak took 8 of 10
S2Zahradka5Dvorak5n = 10split evenly
S3Zahradka8Dvorak2n = 10Zahradka took 8 of 10
S4Zahradka2Dvorak5n = 7Dvorak took 5 of 7
S5Zahradka0Dvorak4n = 4Dvorak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZahradkaDvorakZ − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.038.8−2.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZahradkaDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 831 vs 169 / 34749.3%48.7%410 / 831 vs 169 / 347Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakZahradka 2.00/Dvorak 1.73
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 17:23Z. Zahradka49981111102J. Dvorak47111158123
LSep 8 · 16:20Z. Zahradka33671191J. Dvorak3611113113
LSep 6 · 14:55Z. Zahradka464111110102J. Dvorak49118612123
LSep 5 · 14:55Z. Zahradka4241171192J. Dvorak46115118113
WAug 29 · 10:30Z. Zahradka331111113J. Dvorak198740
LAug 29 · 06:55Z. Zahradka447813161J. Dvorak51111111183
WAug 23 · 18:08Z. Zahradka331111113J. Dvorak219570
LAug 23 · 15:25Z. Zahradka3651111722J. Dvorak46116711113
LAug 20 · 17:25Z. Zahradka146350J. Dvorak331111113
LAug 20 · 15:50Z. Zahradka30871141J. Dvorak4011117113
Z. Zahradka10
WSep 16 · 16:20Z. Zahradka2.201111113D. Tichy1.613670LSep 16 · 14:20Z. Zahradka1.83118891M. Dvorak1.8391111113LSep 14 · 17:50Z. Zahradka3.00101191182D. Sykora1.36127118113WSep 14 · 16:50Z. Zahradka1.5011811113D. Sochor2.50811791WSep 14 · 15:20D. Sykora1.30811771Z. Zahradka3.4011811113WSep 14 · 14:50J. Hendrych2.00111241072Z. Zahradka1.734101112113LSep 10 · 17:29Z. Zahradka2.501191011112M. Dolezal1.50611128133LSep 10 · 16:50J. Hendrych2.101211115113Z. Zahradka1.6714581172WSep 10 · 15:50Z. Zahradka2.751111113M. Dolezal1.404730LSep 10 · 14:20L. Moravec1.8311119113Z. Zahradka1.83731161
J. Dvorak10
WSep 16 · 14:50D. Tichy1.807690J. Dvorak1.911111113WSep 9 · 18:05M. Dvorak1.8011971182J. Dvorak1.91811119113LSep 9 · 17:25J. Dvorak3.0087111182D. Sykora1.36111187113LSep 9 · 15:55M. Beran1.7391111113J. Dvorak2.00115141LSep 9 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.801111810113J. Dvorak1.9197111272WSep 8 · 17:23J. Dvorak1.67111158123Z. Zahradka2.10981111102WSep 8 · 16:20Z. Zahradka2.50671191J. Dvorak1.5011113113WSep 8 · 15:50J. Hendrych2.0051111872J. Dvorak1.73116911113LSep 8 · 14:50J. Dvorak3.001211941P. Moravec1.3614411113LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671
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