TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139325
Played Sep 16Finished
Dominik Tichy
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611911––––
Jakub Dvorak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Tichy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Tichy above · Jakub Dvorak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Dominik Tichy at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Tichy 8–8 Jakub Dvorak Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:27What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tichy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tichy 1493 vs Dvorak 1466
Tichy
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tichy 40% vs Dvorak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tichy 40% vs Dvorak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tichy +2 · Dvorak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tichy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTichy 1.80 / Dvorak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tichy)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13139325
Tichy1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 127 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it93% 63 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 123
Dvorak1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 59 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back27% 15 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTichy3wins
AwayDvorak7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTichy60%3 of 5
AwayDvorak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tichy5Dvorak5n = 10split evenly
S2Tichy5Dvorak5n = 10split evenly
S3Tichy3Dvorak7n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S4Tichy2Dvorak5n = 7Dvorak took 5 of 7
S5Tichy2Dvorak3n = 5Dvorak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTichyDvorakT − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.740.5−5.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTichyDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 261 vs 174 / 35864%48.6%167 / 261 vs 174 / 358Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TichyTichy 1.80/Dvorak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tichy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 16:55D. Tichy331111113J. Dvorak219480
LAug 29 · 08:25D. Tichy3311431142J. Dvorak49911117113
LAug 28 · 18:30D. Tichy32861171J. Dvorak4111118113
LAug 28 · 15:25D. Tichy204970J. Dvorak331111113
WAug 13 · 14:50D. Tichy47111544133J. Dvorak537131111112
LAug 9 · 06:55D. Tichy4411412892J. Dvorak452111011113
LAug 5 · 15:55D. Tichy168170J. Dvorak331111113
LAug 3 · 14:50D. Tichy4381471132J. Dvorak521112117113
WJul 31 · 15:25D. Tichy42111145113J. Dvorak3691111142
LJul 28 · 18:28D. Tichy371011881J. Dvorak4212811113
D. Tichy10
WSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123WSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113LSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123LAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 13:25J. Melichar1.837411121D. Tichy1.8311118143
J. Dvorak10
WSep 16 · 15:20Z. Zahradka2.0081215842J. Dvorak1.7311101311113WSep 9 · 18:05M. Dvorak1.8011971182J. Dvorak1.91811119113LSep 9 · 17:25J. Dvorak3.0087111182D. Sykora1.36111187113LSep 9 · 15:55M. Beran1.7391111113J. Dvorak2.00115141LSep 9 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.801111810113J. Dvorak1.9197111272WSep 8 · 17:23J. Dvorak1.67111158123Z. Zahradka2.10981111102WSep 8 · 16:20Z. Zahradka2.50671191J. Dvorak1.5011113113WSep 8 · 15:50J. Hendrych2.0051111872J. Dvorak1.73116911113LSep 8 · 14:50J. Dvorak3.001211941P. Moravec1.3614411113LSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113
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