TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103389
Played Sep 9Finished
Jakub Dvorak
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811711118117811
David Sykora
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeDavid Sykora to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Dvorak above · David Sykora below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held David Sykora at 71.6%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dvorak 3–14 David Sykora Jakub Dvorak has won 3 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Sykora
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-14 in 17
Sykora
Correct
gap of 11 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1509 vs Sykora 1502
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 60% vs Sykora 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 50% vs Sykora 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -2 · Sykora +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Sykora) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sykora form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 3.00 / Sykora 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Sykora)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13103389
Dvorak3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 71 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back27% 16 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Sykora1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 97 of 157
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it82% 70 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak2wins
AwaySykora8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSykora leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak50%2 of 4
AwaySykora100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak4Sykora6n = 10Sykora took 6 of 10
S2Dvorak4Sykora6n = 10Sykora took 6 of 10
S3Dvorak3Sykora7n = 10Sykora took 7 of 10
S4Dvorak2Sykora6n = 8Sykora took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakSykoraD − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.138.5−4.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakSykoraBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 356 vs 298 / 55748.6%53.5%173 / 356 vs 298 / 557Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SykoraDvorak 3.00/Sykora 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Sykora · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sykora won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 15:55J. Dvorak—9770D. Sykora—1111113
LAug 16 · 15:55J. Dvorak—261171D. Sykora—11111113
LJun 17 · 17:50J. Dvorak—814941D. Sykora—111211113
WJun 17 · 15:50J. Dvorak—11128113D. Sykora—7101181
LMay 16 · 10:39J. Dvorak—129871D. Sykora—101111113
LMay 16 · 08:55J. Dvorak—11830D. Sykora—1311113
WMar 25 · 19:05J. Dvorak—111211113D. Sykora—114481
LMar 25 · 16:55J. Dvorak—711951D. Sykora—11711113
LFeb 23 · 18:55J. Dvorak—9111161D. Sykora—11713113
LFeb 23 · 16:50J. Dvorak—11411892D. Sykora—811911113
J. Dvorak10
LSep 9 · 15:55M. Beran1.7391111113J. Dvorak2.00115141WSep 8 · 17:23J. Dvorak1.67111158123Z. Zahradka2.10981111102WSep 8 · 16:20Z. Zahradka2.50671191J. Dvorak1.5011113113WSep 8 · 15:50J. Hendrych2.0051111872J. Dvorak1.73116911113LSep 8 · 14:50J. Dvorak3.001211941P. Moravec1.3614411113LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173
D. Sykora10
WSep 9 · 16:25D. Sykora1.83111211113M. Dvorak1.83814881LSep 9 · 14:55M. Beran1.6741111113D. Sykora2.10119991LSep 9 · 14:30D. Sykora1.4010101171A. Kral2.7512126113WSep 9 · 13:25A. Kral2.757101171D. Sykora1.4011129113WSep 9 · 12:25D. Sykora1.4011811113L. Moravec2.75911751WSep 9 · 10:55P. Chlumsky2.2551111132D. Sykora1.57117711113WSep 8 · 13:20D. Sochor2.10117110D. Sykora1.671311133LSep 8 · 12:50D. Sykora1.9116100A. Langer1.801111123LSep 8 · 11:20D. Sochor2.25113113113D. Sykora1.5781191172LSep 8 · 10:50V. Jr1.611211113D. Sykora2.2010780
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