TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136404
Played Sep 16Finished
Leon Kolman
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210611611711––
Zdenek Vasatko
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:07 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Zdenek Vasatko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Leon Kolman at 56.2%
74 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 5–3 Zdenek Vasatko Zdenek Vasatko has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Kolman
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1574 vs Vasatko 1599
Vasatko
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 20% vs Vasatko 40%
Vasatko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 40% vs Vasatko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman -2 · Vasatko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolman) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.67 / Vasatko 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolman)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13136404
Kolman1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 100 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it88% 45 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it70% 79 of 113
Vasatko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 29 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKolman5wins
AwayVasatko3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderKolman leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman80%4 of 5
AwayVasatko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman5Vasatko3n = 8Kolman took 5 of 8
S2Kolman4Vasatko4n = 8split evenly
S3Kolman6Vasatko2n = 8Kolman took 6 of 8
S4Kolman2Vasatko2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricKolmanVasatkoK − VBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match34.833.2+1.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanVasatkoBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 681 vs 145 / 29252.4%49.7%357 / 681 vs 145 / 292Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKolman 1.67/Vasatko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vasatko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 8 · 11:45L. Kolman199640Z. Vasatko331111113
WSep 7 · 12:58L. Kolman44111111113Z. Vasatko37913691
WSep 7 · 12:00L. Kolman331111113Z. Vasatko214980
WAug 31 · 16:38L. Kolman331111113Z. Vasatko158340
WAug 31 · 14:30L. Kolman44921111113Z. Vasatko4511119772
WAug 27 · 09:15L. Kolman341111123Z. Vasatko2275100
LApr 5 · 13:45L. Kolman29651171Z. Vasatko4211119113
LMar 16 · 13:00L. Kolman4211127572Z. Vasatko518101111113
L. Kolman10
LSep 16 · 10:15L. Kolman1.731011681L. Smazik2.0012711113LSep 16 · 09:15L. Kolman1.50111061192T. Hrstka2.50512117113WSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman1.8351111113R. Merkl1.83114991LSep 13 · 08:00P. Hala1.83101211113L. Kolman1.831210291LSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182LSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00114991WSep 10 · 12:48L. Kolman2.2011117113M. Svitac1.61761161WSep 10 · 11:45M. Hajek1.831411881L. Kolman1.8316611113WSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113LSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac1.731111113L. Kolman2.009540
Z. Vasatko10
LSep 16 · 10:45Z. Vasatko1.336111421T. Hrstka3.2511616113WSep 16 · 09:45Z. Vasatko1.831115113L. Smazik1.8341380LSep 15 · 16:19P. Semrad1.731111113Z. Vasatko2.006990LSep 15 · 15:15Z. Vasatko2.20117571P. Semrad1.6141111113WSep 15 · 14:15Z. Vasatko2.0091111133M. Hajek1.731189111LSep 15 · 13:15Z. Vasatko1.6771181182D. Marasek2.10119115113WSep 14 · 12:24M. Hajek1.6151281192Z. Vasatko2.201110117113LSep 14 · 11:15Z. Vasatko2.10511961M. Hajek1.6711911113WSep 14 · 10:15Z. Vasatko2.101111113L. Smazik1.677290WSep 14 · 09:15Z. Vasatko1.731111113M. Svitac2.007650
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