TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136463
Played Sep 16Finished
Leon Kolman
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012117611811––
Libor Smazik
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Libor Smazik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Leon Kolman at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 2–0 Libor Smazik Libor Smazik has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:27What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1588 vs Smazik 1518
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 20% vs Smazik 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 40% vs Smazik 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman -1 · Smazik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smazik form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.73 / Smazik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolman)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13136463
Kolman1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 100 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it88% 45 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it70% 79 of 113
Smazik2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 20 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back26% 6 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKolman2wins
AwaySmazik0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKolman leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKolmanSmazikK − SBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match44.540.0+4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanSmazikBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 680 vs 203 / 40552.5%50.1%357 / 680 vs 203 / 405Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKolman 1.73/Smazik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Smazik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 10 · 10:45L. Kolman3961111113L. Smazik28113861
WJul 15 · 11:45L. Kolman50146811113L. Smazik52121111992
L. Kolman10
LSep 16 · 11:15L. Kolman1.67126671Z. Vasatko2.10101111113LSep 16 · 09:15L. Kolman1.50111061192T. Hrstka2.50512117113WSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman1.8351111113R. Merkl1.83114991LSep 13 · 08:00P. Hala1.83101211113L. Kolman1.831210291LSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182LSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00114991WSep 10 · 12:48L. Kolman2.2011117113M. Svitac1.61761161WSep 10 · 11:45M. Hajek1.831411881L. Kolman1.8316611113WSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113LSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac1.731111113L. Kolman2.009540
L. Smazik10
LSep 16 · 09:45Z. Vasatko1.831115113L. Smazik1.8341380WSep 14 · 12:53M. Svitac1.83911491L. Smazik1.8311811113LSep 14 · 11:45L. Smazik1.8311351152M. Svitac1.83511119113LSep 14 · 10:15Z. Vasatko2.101111113L. Smazik1.677290LSep 14 · 09:45M. Hajek1.801111113L. Smazik1.918870LSep 12 · 12:38P. Semrad1.73111193L. Smazik2.005580WSep 12 · 11:30L. Smazik2.0011612113P. Semrad1.738111091LSep 12 · 10:30L. Smazik1.83125741M. Hajek1.83101111113WSep 12 · 09:30L. Smazik1.801111103Z. Vasatko1.917680LSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113
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