TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136628
Played Sep 16Finished
Zdenek Vasatko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141513118––––
Libor Smazik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:03 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeLibor Smazik to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZdenek Vasatko above · Libor Smazik below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 62 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Libor Smazik at 58.9%
62 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Vasatko 11–22 Libor Smazik Zdenek Vasatko has won 11 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:03What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Smazik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-22 in 33
Smazik
Wrong
gap of 11 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vasatko 1602 vs Smazik 1530
Vasatko
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vasatko 40% vs Smazik 20%
Vasatko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vasatko 50% vs Smazik 30%
Vasatko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vasatko -2 · Smazik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smazik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smazik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVasatko 1.83 / Smazik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Smazik)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13136628
Vasatko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Smazik1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVasatko3wins
AwaySmazik7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSmazik leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVasatko66.7%2 of 3
AwaySmazik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vasatko3Smazik7n = 10Smazik took 7 of 10
S2Vasatko3Smazik7n = 10Smazik took 7 of 10
S3Vasatko3Smazik7n = 10Smazik took 7 of 10
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricVasatkoSmazikV − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match26.830.8−4.0per matchSweeps26−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVasatkoSmazikBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 292 vs 206 / 40849.3%50.5%144 / 292 vs 206 / 408Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmazikVasatko 1.83/Smazik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Smazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vasatko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 10:15Z. Vasatko331111113L. Smazik187290
LSep 12 · 09:30Z. Vasatko217680L. Smazik321111103
WSep 5 · 14:45Z. Vasatko3951111123L. Smazik331184101
LMay 24 · 12:00Z. Vasatko4611891172L. Smazik44511116113
WMay 23 · 12:44Z. Vasatko331111113L. Smazik153750
LMay 23 · 11:45Z. Vasatko228860L. Smazik331111113
LMar 24 · 12:00Z. Vasatko2476110L. Smazik351111133
LFeb 16 · 17:15Z. Vasatko2055100L. Smazik331111113
LFeb 16 · 16:15Z. Vasatko156630L. Smazik331111113
LDec 16 · 13:00Z. Vasatko151950L. Smazik321111103
Z. Vasatko10
LSep 16 · 10:45Z. Vasatko1.336111421T. Hrstka3.2511616113LSep 15 · 16:19P. Semrad1.731111113Z. Vasatko2.006990LSep 15 · 15:15Z. Vasatko2.20117571P. Semrad1.6141111113WSep 15 · 14:15Z. Vasatko2.0091111133M. Hajek1.731189111LSep 15 · 13:15Z. Vasatko1.6771181182D. Marasek2.10119115113WSep 14 · 12:24M. Hajek1.6151281192Z. Vasatko2.201110117113LSep 14 · 11:15Z. Vasatko2.10511961M. Hajek1.6711911113WSep 14 · 10:15Z. Vasatko2.101111113L. Smazik1.677290WSep 14 · 09:15Z. Vasatko1.731111113M. Svitac2.007650LSep 12 · 13:09Z. Vasatko1.809970M. Hajek1.91111193
L. Smazik10
WSep 16 · 10:15L. Kolman1.731011681L. Smazik2.0012711113WSep 14 · 12:53M. Svitac1.83911491L. Smazik1.8311811113LSep 14 · 11:45L. Smazik1.8311351152M. Svitac1.83511119113LSep 14 · 10:15Z. Vasatko2.101111113L. Smazik1.677290LSep 14 · 09:45M. Hajek1.801111113L. Smazik1.918870LSep 12 · 12:38P. Semrad1.73111193L. Smazik2.005580WSep 12 · 11:30L. Smazik2.0011612113P. Semrad1.738111091LSep 12 · 10:30L. Smazik1.83125741M. Hajek1.83101111113WSep 12 · 09:30L. Smazik1.801111103Z. Vasatko1.917680LSep 10 · 12:18M. Hajek2.001111113L. Smazik1.737530
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