TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116917
Played Sep 12Finished
Libor Smazik
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1186111210119––
Petr Semrad
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLibor Smazik above · Petr Semrad below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Petr Semrad at 54.1%
78 points played in total.
H2H Libor Smazik 27–29 Petr Semrad Libor Smazik has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Semrad
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-29 in 56
Semrad
Wrong
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smazik 1491 vs Semrad 1779
Semrad
Wrong
both rated, 288 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smazik 20% vs Semrad 80%
Semrad
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smazik 10% vs Semrad 90%
Semrad
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smazik -1 · Semrad +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Semrad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semrad form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmazik 2.00 / Semrad 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Semrad)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13116917
Smazik2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 26 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back30% 9 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Semrad1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 94 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it69% 62 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmazik4wins
AwaySemrad6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSemrad leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmazik66.7%4 of 6
AwaySemrad100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smazik6Semrad4n = 10Smazik took 6 of 10
S2Smazik6Semrad4n = 10Smazik took 6 of 10
S3Smazik5Semrad5n = 10split evenly
S4Smazik0Semrad6n = 6Semrad took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmazikSemradSmazik − SemradBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.438.3−3.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmazikSemradBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 402 vs 272 / 53050.8%51.3%204 / 402 vs 272 / 530Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradSmazik 2.00/Semrad 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Smazik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 15:30L. Smazik—481191P. Semrad—11118113
LSep 5 · 13:15L. Smazik—811351P. Semrad—11711103
LJul 16 · 14:45L. Smazik—561251P. Semrad—111110113
WJul 15 · 12:58L. Smazik—141158113P. Semrad—125111192
WJul 15 · 10:15L. Smazik—1111113P. Semrad—9590
WJul 13 · 13:30L. Smazik—1113133P. Semrad—711110
LJul 12 · 12:58L. Smazik—8890P. Semrad—1111113
WJul 12 · 12:00L. Smazik—1111113P. Semrad—9880
LJul 11 · 12:00L. Smazik—111213532P. Semrad—8101511113
LJul 10 · 16:23L. Smazik—1115371P. Semrad—81711113
L. Smazik10
LSep 12 · 10:30L. Smazik1.83125741M. Hajek1.83101111113WSep 12 · 09:30L. Smazik1.801111103Z. Vasatko1.917680LSep 10 · 12:18M. Hajek2.001111113L. Smazik1.737530LSep 10 · 11:15M. Svitac2.1013119113L. Smazik1.671181181LSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113LSep 10 · 09:45L. Smazik1.53611761M. Hajek2.3811811113LSep 7 · 16:38D. Marasek1.831115119113L. Smazik1.8351741172LSep 7 · 15:30L. Smazik2.00481191P. Semrad1.7311118113LSep 7 · 14:30L. Smazik1.804630D. Marasek1.911111113LSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik2.10101140P. Oplt1.671213113
P. Semrad10
WSep 12 · 11:00P. Semrad1.731111113Z. Vasatko2.009470WSep 12 · 10:00P. Semrad1.53101212143M. Hajek2.38121010121LSep 11 · 12:44Z. Vasatko1.91111111113P. Semrad1.80913151WSep 11 · 11:15P. Oplt1.911081161P. Semrad1.8012116113WSep 11 · 10:45P. Semrad1.7311115113Z. Vasatko2.00281171WSep 11 · 09:45P. Semrad1.671111113M. Hajek2.106760WSep 7 · 17:10P. Oplt1.9151111752P. Semrad1.80119711113WSep 7 · 15:30L. Smazik2.00481191P. Semrad1.7311118113WSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890WSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292
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