TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13090659
Played Sep 7Finished
Petr Semrad
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118119––––
Pavel Oplt
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Semrad above · Pavel Oplt below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 59 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Petr Semrad at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Petr Semrad 10–8 Pavel Oplt Pavel Oplt has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:07What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Oplt
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Semrad
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semrad 1694 vs Oplt 1615
Semrad
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semrad 80% vs Oplt 40%
Semrad
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semrad 70% vs Oplt 50%
Semrad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Semrad +1 · Oplt +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oplt) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oplt form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemrad 1.91 / Oplt 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Oplt)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13090659
Semrad1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog51% won 50 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back30% 14 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Oplt1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 28 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemrad5wins
AwayOplt5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemrad80%4 of 5
AwayOplt80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semrad5Oplt5n = 10split evenly
S2Semrad6Oplt4n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S3Semrad5Oplt5n = 10split evenly
S4Semrad2Oplt6n = 8Oplt took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemradOpltS − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.935.6+1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemradOpltBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 533 vs 109 / 20950.8%52.2%271 / 533 vs 109 / 209Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpltSemrad 1.91/Oplt 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Oplt · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 14 · 14:45P. Semrad—1191161P. Oplt—13118113
WJun 11 · 16:24P. Semrad—11117123P. Oplt—5711101
WJun 11 · 14:45P. Semrad—911116113P. Oplt—11461142
LMay 4 · 20:48P. Semrad—41213101P. Oplt—111411123
LMay 4 · 17:15P. Semrad—2511111P. Oplt—11116133
LFeb 27 · 08:45P. Semrad—411791P. Oplt—11711113
WFeb 23 · 21:40P. Semrad—11119113P. Oplt—581161
WFeb 23 · 20:45P. Semrad—1111113P. Oplt—8740
WFeb 4 · 09:56P. Semrad—111292P. Oplt—310101
LFeb 4 · 09:00P. Semrad—129971P. Oplt—101111113
P. Semrad10
WSep 7 · 15:30L. Smazik2.00481191P. Semrad1.7311118113WSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860WSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351LSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991WSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171LSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111WSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113
P. Oplt10
WSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik2.10101140P. Oplt1.671213113WAug 10 · 20:18D. Marasek2.10711121242P. Oplt1.671171410113LAug 10 · 19:15P. Oplt1.61711561D. Marasek2.2011711113LAug 10 · 18:15P. Oplt1.53106111152M. Hajek2.38121179113LAug 10 · 17:15P. Oplt1.44101161182A. Pavlik2.63129118113WAug 4 · 20:28A. Pavlik2.1089110P. Oplt1.671111133LAug 4 · 19:15P. Oplt1.6711113962A. Pavlik2.10881111113WAug 4 · 18:15P. Oplt1.67138711113J. Jnr2.10111111462WAug 4 · 17:15P. Oplt1.6112127113D. Marasek2.2010101161LJul 30 · 12:23P. Oplt2.63119911102A. Radkovsky1.44611115123
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