TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12392816
Played Aug 10Finished
Pavel Oplt
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119611118811
Adam Pavlik
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Oplt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Oplt above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 97 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Pavel Oplt at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Oplt 1–1 Adam Pavlik Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:16What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Oplt
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Oplt 1629 vs Pavlik 1623
Oplt
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oplt 60% vs Pavlik 40%
Oplt
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oplt 60% vs Pavlik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oplt +1 · Pavlik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Oplt) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOplt 1.44 / Pavlik 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Oplt)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12392816
Oplt1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 36 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Pavlik2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 38 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeOplt1wins
AwayPavlik1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricOpltPavlikO − PBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match37.538.5−1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOpltPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 216 vs 158 / 31252.3%50.6%113 / 216 vs 158 / 312Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpltOplt 1.44/Pavlik 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Oplt · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 4 · 20:28P. Oplt—1111133A. Pavlik—89110
LAug 4 · 19:15P. Oplt—11113962A. Pavlik—881111113
P. Oplt10
LSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890WSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik2.10101140P. Oplt1.671213113WAug 10 · 20:18D. Marasek2.10711121242P. Oplt1.671171410113LAug 10 · 19:15P. Oplt1.61711561D. Marasek2.2011711113LAug 10 · 18:15P. Oplt1.53106111152M. Hajek2.38121179113WAug 4 · 20:28A. Pavlik2.1089110P. Oplt1.671111133LAug 4 · 19:15P. Oplt1.6711113962A. Pavlik2.10881111113WAug 4 · 18:15P. Oplt1.67138711113J. Jnr2.10111111462WAug 4 · 17:15P. Oplt1.6112127113D. Marasek2.2010101161LJul 30 · 12:23P. Oplt2.63119911102A. Radkovsky1.44611115123
A. Pavlik10
LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131LAug 4 · 20:28A. Pavlik2.1089110P. Oplt1.671111133WAug 4 · 19:15P. Oplt1.6711113962A. Pavlik2.10881111113
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