TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12392831
Played Aug 10Finished
Pavel Oplt
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711117511611––
Dominik Marasek
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timePavel Oplt to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Oplt above · Dominik Marasek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Pavel Oplt at 56.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Oplt 7–6 Dominik Marasek Dominik Marasek has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:13What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Oplt
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oplt 1594 vs Marasek 1575
Oplt
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oplt 40% vs Marasek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oplt 50% vs Marasek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oplt -2 · Marasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Oplt) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oplt form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOplt 1.61 / Marasek 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Oplt)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12392831
Oplt1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 36 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Marasek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 22 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back21% 6 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOplt5wins
AwayMarasek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOplt50%2 of 4
AwayMarasek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oplt4Marasek6n = 10Marasek took 6 of 10
S2Oplt6Marasek4n = 10Oplt took 6 of 10
S3Oplt5Marasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Oplt3Marasek7n = 10Marasek took 7 of 10
S5Oplt3Marasek1n = 4Oplt took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOpltMarasekO − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.141.5−1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOpltMarasekBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 219 vs 120 / 24551.6%49%113 / 219 vs 120 / 245Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpltOplt 1.61/Marasek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Oplt · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 19:15P. Oplt—711561D. Marasek—11711113
WAug 4 · 17:15P. Oplt—12127113D. Marasek—10101161
WJul 29 · 20:17P. Oplt—115118113D. Marasek—91171162
LJul 29 · 18:15P. Oplt—116941D. Marasek—91111113
WMay 27 · 11:45P. Oplt—91111113D. Marasek—117781
WMay 7 · 14:15P. Oplt—471111113D. Marasek—11116772
WNov 13 · 18:05P. Oplt—813118113D. Marasek—111151172
LNov 13 · 16:45P. Oplt—1011147102D. Marasek—1251211123
LAug 19 · 14:00P. Oplt—411941D. Marasek—11611113
LJul 14 · 15:15P. Oplt—118991D. Marasek—81111113
P. Oplt10
LSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890WSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik2.10101140P. Oplt1.671213113WAug 10 · 20:18D. Marasek2.10711121242P. Oplt1.671171410113LAug 10 · 18:15P. Oplt1.53106111152M. Hajek2.38121179113LAug 10 · 17:15P. Oplt1.44101161182A. Pavlik2.63129118113WAug 4 · 20:28A. Pavlik2.1089110P. Oplt1.671111133LAug 4 · 19:15P. Oplt1.6711113962A. Pavlik2.10881111113WAug 4 · 18:15P. Oplt1.67138711113J. Jnr2.10111111462WAug 4 · 17:15P. Oplt1.6112127113D. Marasek2.2010101161LJul 30 · 12:23P. Oplt2.63119911102A. Radkovsky1.44611115123
D. Marasek10
WSep 7 · 14:30L. Smazik1.804630D. Marasek1.911111113LSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991LSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171WSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113WSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123WSep 1 · 16:49D. Marasek1.611111113L. Kolman2.209540WSep 1 · 15:45D. Marasek1.8311207113M. Svitac1.836181171LAug 10 · 20:18D. Marasek2.10711121242P. Oplt1.671171410113LAug 4 · 17:15P. Oplt1.6112127113D. Marasek2.2010101161
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