TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12357644
Played Aug 4Finished
Pavel Oplt
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101210711116––
Dominik Marasek
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:07 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timePavel Oplt to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Oplt above · Dominik Marasek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 79 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Pavel Oplt at 58.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Oplt 6–5 Dominik Marasek Dominik Marasek has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Oplt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oplt 1618 vs Marasek 1553
Oplt
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oplt 60% vs Marasek 20%
Oplt
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oplt 40% vs Marasek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oplt -2 · Marasek -3
Marasek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Oplt)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOplt 1.61 / Marasek 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Oplt)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12357644
Oplt1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 33 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Marasek2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 19 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOplt5wins
AwayMarasek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOplt50%2 of 4
AwayMarasek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oplt4Marasek6n = 10Marasek took 6 of 10
S2Oplt6Marasek4n = 10Oplt took 6 of 10
S3Oplt5Marasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Oplt3Marasek7n = 10Marasek took 7 of 10
S5Oplt3Marasek1n = 4Oplt took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOpltMarasekO − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.342.1−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOpltMarasekBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 216 vs 113 / 23052.3%49.1%113 / 216 vs 113 / 230Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpltOplt 1.61/Marasek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.7%
Oplt · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Oplt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 29 · 20:17P. Oplt—115118113D. Marasek—91171162
LJul 29 · 18:15P. Oplt—116941D. Marasek—91111113
WMay 27 · 11:45P. Oplt—91111113D. Marasek—117781
WMay 7 · 14:15P. Oplt—471111113D. Marasek—11116772
WNov 13 · 18:05P. Oplt—813118113D. Marasek—111151172
LNov 13 · 16:45P. Oplt—1011147102D. Marasek—1251211123
LAug 19 · 14:00P. Oplt—411941D. Marasek—11611113
LJul 14 · 15:15P. Oplt—118991D. Marasek—81111113
WMay 6 · 16:32P. Oplt—111111113D. Marasek—991381
LMay 6 · 15:15P. Oplt—9115141D. Marasek—11611163
P. Oplt10
LSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890WSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik2.10101140P. Oplt1.671213113WAug 10 · 20:18D. Marasek2.10711121242P. Oplt1.671171410113LAug 10 · 19:15P. Oplt1.61711561D. Marasek2.2011711113LAug 10 · 18:15P. Oplt1.53106111152M. Hajek2.38121179113LAug 10 · 17:15P. Oplt1.44101161182A. Pavlik2.63129118113WAug 4 · 20:28A. Pavlik2.1089110P. Oplt1.671111133LAug 4 · 19:15P. Oplt1.6711113962A. Pavlik2.10881111113WAug 4 · 18:15P. Oplt1.67138711113J. Jnr2.10111111462LJul 30 · 12:23P. Oplt2.63119911102A. Radkovsky1.44611115123
D. Marasek10
WSep 7 · 14:30L. Smazik1.804630D. Marasek1.911111113LSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991LSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171WSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113WSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123WSep 1 · 16:49D. Marasek1.611111113L. Kolman2.209540WSep 1 · 15:45D. Marasek1.8311207113M. Svitac1.836181171LAug 10 · 20:18D. Marasek2.10711121242P. Oplt1.671171410113WAug 10 · 19:15P. Oplt1.61711561D. Marasek2.2011711113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.