TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089178
Played Sep 7Finished
Petr Semrad
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111171113112119
Dominik Marasek
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Semrad above · Dominik Marasek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 94 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Petr Semrad at 60.1%
94 points played in total.
H2H Petr Semrad 13–7 Dominik Marasek Dominik Marasek has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:21What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Semrad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-7 in 20
Semrad
Correct
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semrad 1683 vs Marasek 1712
Marasek
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semrad 60% vs Marasek 80%
Marasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semrad 60% vs Marasek 90%
Marasek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Semrad -1 · Marasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Semrad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marasek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemrad 1.57 / Marasek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Semrad)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13089178
Semrad1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 93 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it91% 40 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it68% 61 of 90
Marasek2.25
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 27 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemrad6wins
AwayMarasek4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSemrad leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemrad66.7%4 of 6
AwayMarasek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semrad6Marasek4n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S2Semrad4Marasek6n = 10Marasek took 6 of 10
S3Semrad5Marasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Semrad6Marasek1n = 7Semrad took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemradMarasekS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.037.1+1.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemradMarasekBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 536 vs 122 / 24250.8%50.4%272 / 536 vs 122 / 242Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradSemrad 1.57/Marasek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 17:03P. Semrad—165991D. Marasek—141111113
WSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad—11116113D. Marasek—561171
LSep 1 · 13:45P. Semrad—1213161342D. Marasek—10151811113
WAug 21 · 14:15P. Semrad—101111113D. Marasek—127661
WAug 18 · 16:48P. Semrad—11911143D. Marasek—9119121
WAug 18 · 13:15P. Semrad—1114123D. Marasek—412100
WJul 31 · 15:15P. Semrad—111011113D. Marasek—612771
WJun 16 · 14:15P. Semrad—81111123D. Marasek—1184101
LJun 10 · 16:49P. Semrad—71020D. Marasek—1112113
LJun 10 · 15:45P. Semrad—9970D. Marasek—1111113
P. Semrad10
WSep 7 · 15:30L. Smazik2.00481191P. Semrad1.7311118113WSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860WSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351LSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991WSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171LSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111WSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113
D. Marasek10
WSep 7 · 14:30L. Smazik1.804630D. Marasek1.911111113WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991LSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171WSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113WSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123WSep 1 · 16:49D. Marasek1.611111113L. Kolman2.209540WSep 1 · 15:45D. Marasek1.8311207113M. Svitac1.836181171WSep 1 · 14:15L. Kolman1.836980D. Marasek1.831111113WSep 1 · 13:45P. Semrad1.441213161342D. Marasek2.6310151811113WAug 24 · 17:03R. Merkl2.50661181D. Marasek1.5011118113
Upcoming Matches
P. Semrad
Nothing scheduled
D. Marasek
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