TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088722
Played Sep 7Finished
Libor Smazik
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411811118911––
Petr Semrad
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLibor Smazik above · Petr Semrad below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Petr Semrad at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Libor Smazik 27–28 Petr Semrad Libor Smazik has won 27 of their 55 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:11What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Semrad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-28 in 55
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smazik 1521 vs Semrad 1705
Semrad
Correct
both rated, 184 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smazik 0% vs Semrad 80%
Semrad
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smazik 20% vs Semrad 70%
Semrad
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smazik -5 · Semrad +2
Smazik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Semrad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semrad form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmazik 2.00 / Semrad 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Semrad)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13088722
Smazik2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 27 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back33% 10 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Semrad1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 93 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it91% 40 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it68% 61 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmazik5wins
AwaySemrad5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmazik66.7%4 of 6
AwaySemrad75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smazik6Semrad4n = 10Smazik took 6 of 10
S2Smazik7Semrad3n = 10Smazik took 7 of 10
S3Smazik5Semrad5n = 10split evenly
S4Smazik1Semrad5n = 6Semrad took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmazikSemradSmazik − SemradBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.737.1−1.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmazikSemradBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 406 vs 272 / 53451.5%50.9%209 / 406 vs 272 / 534Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradSmazik 2.00/Semrad 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 13:15L. Smazik—811351P. Semrad—11711103
LJul 16 · 14:45L. Smazik—561251P. Semrad—111110113
WJul 15 · 12:58L. Smazik—141158113P. Semrad—125111192
WJul 15 · 10:15L. Smazik—1111113P. Semrad—9590
WJul 13 · 13:30L. Smazik—1113133P. Semrad—711110
LJul 12 · 12:58L. Smazik—8890P. Semrad—1111113
WJul 12 · 12:00L. Smazik—1111113P. Semrad—9880
LJul 11 · 12:00L. Smazik—111213532P. Semrad—8101511113
LJul 10 · 16:23L. Smazik—1115371P. Semrad—81711113
WJul 10 · 13:15L. Smazik—101311113P. Semrad—1211241
L. Smazik10
LSep 7 · 14:30L. Smazik1.804630D. Marasek1.911111113LSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik2.10101140P. Oplt1.671213113LSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113LSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac2.3811117113L. Smazik1.53761151LSep 5 · 14:45Z. Vasatko3.0051111123L. Smazik1.361184101LSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351WJul 16 · 16:18L. Smazik1.501111113T. Hucko2.508630WJul 16 · 15:45L. Provaznik1.736790L. Smazik2.001111113LJul 16 · 14:45P. Semrad2.00111110113L. Smazik1.73561251LJul 16 · 13:15T. Hucko2.6361111113L. Smazik1.44117881
P. Semrad10
WSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890WSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860WSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351LSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991WSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171LSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111WJul 16 · 14:45P. Semrad2.00111110113L. Smazik1.73561251
Upcoming Matches
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P. Semrad
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