TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13090622
Played Sep 7Finished
Libor Smazik
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121113411––––
Pavel Oplt
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:57 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timePavel Oplt to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLibor Smazik above · Pavel Oplt below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 61 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Pavel Oplt at 55.8%
61 points played in total.
H2H Libor Smazik 11–12 Pavel Oplt Libor Smazik has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 05:57What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Oplt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-12 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smazik 1529 vs Oplt 1615
Oplt
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smazik 20% vs Oplt 40%
Oplt
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smazik 30% vs Oplt 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smazik -4 · Oplt +1
Smazik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Oplt)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oplt form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmazik 2.10 / Oplt 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Oplt)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13090622
Smazik2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 27 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back33% 10 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Oplt1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 28 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmazik5wins
AwayOplt5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmazik100%5 of 5
AwayOplt100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smazik5Oplt5n = 10split evenly
S2Smazik2Oplt8n = 10Oplt took 8 of 10
S3Smazik5Oplt5n = 10split evenly
S4Smazik3Oplt3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmazikOpltS − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.637.2−0.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmazikOpltBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 405 vs 109 / 20951.6%52.2%209 / 405 vs 109 / 209Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpltSmazik 2.10/Oplt 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Oplt · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Oplt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik—101140P. Oplt—1213113
WMay 27 · 12:55L. Smazik—1311113P. Oplt—11290
WMay 27 · 09:15L. Smazik—1111716123P. Oplt—7131114102
WMar 20 · 12:45L. Smazik—11911113P. Oplt—411831
LFeb 16 · 15:45L. Smazik—4670P. Oplt—1111113
LNov 13 · 14:15L. Smazik—6980P. Oplt—1111113
LNov 11 · 17:31L. Smazik—61111141P. Oplt—11139163
LNov 11 · 14:45L. Smazik—1591191P. Oplt—17116113
WOct 23 · 16:42L. Smazik—114114113P. Oplt—71191142
WOct 23 · 15:30L. Smazik—11117113P. Oplt—651191
L. Smazik10
LSep 7 · 14:30L. Smazik1.804630D. Marasek1.911111113LSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113LSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac2.3811117113L. Smazik1.53761151LSep 5 · 14:45Z. Vasatko3.0051111123L. Smazik1.361184101LSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351WJul 16 · 16:18L. Smazik1.501111113T. Hucko2.508630WJul 16 · 15:45L. Provaznik1.736790L. Smazik2.001111113LJul 16 · 14:45P. Semrad2.00111110113L. Smazik1.73561251LJul 16 · 13:15T. Hucko2.6361111113L. Smazik1.44117881WJul 15 · 12:58L. Smazik1.67141158113P. Semrad2.10125111192
P. Oplt10
WAug 10 · 20:18D. Marasek2.10711121242P. Oplt1.671171410113LAug 10 · 19:15P. Oplt1.61711561D. Marasek2.2011711113LAug 10 · 18:15P. Oplt1.53106111152M. Hajek2.38121179113LAug 10 · 17:15P. Oplt1.44101161182A. Pavlik2.63129118113WAug 4 · 20:28A. Pavlik2.1089110P. Oplt1.671111133LAug 4 · 19:15P. Oplt1.6711113962A. Pavlik2.10881111113WAug 4 · 18:15P. Oplt1.67138711113J. Jnr2.10111111462WAug 4 · 17:15P. Oplt1.6112127113D. Marasek2.2010101161LJul 30 · 12:23P. Oplt2.63119911102A. Radkovsky1.44611115123LJul 30 · 11:15A. Radkovsky1.831111123P. Oplt1.8362100
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