TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12357646
Played Aug 4Finished
Pavel Oplt
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1311811711114116
Jan Simecek Jnr
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:07 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timePavel Oplt to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Oplt above · Jan Simecek Jnr below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Pavel Oplt at 55.8%
93 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:07What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Oplt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Oplt 1628 vs Jnr 1542
Oplt
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oplt 60% vs Jnr 20%
Oplt
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oplt 50% vs Jnr 20%
Oplt
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oplt +1 · Jnr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Oplt)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOplt 1.67 / Jnr 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Oplt)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12357646
Oplt1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 33 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Jnr2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 48 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back31% 12 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricOpltJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 217 vs 207 / 39652.5%52.3%114 / 217 vs 207 / 396Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpltOplt 1.67/Jnr 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Oplt · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Oplt won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
P. Oplt10
LSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890WSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik2.10101140P. Oplt1.671213113WAug 10 · 20:18D. Marasek2.10711121242P. Oplt1.671171410113LAug 10 · 19:15P. Oplt1.61711561D. Marasek2.2011711113LAug 10 · 18:15P. Oplt1.53106111152M. Hajek2.38121179113LAug 10 · 17:15P. Oplt1.44101161182A. Pavlik2.63129118113WAug 4 · 20:28A. Pavlik2.1089110P. Oplt1.671111133LAug 4 · 19:15P. Oplt1.6711113962A. Pavlik2.10881111113WAug 4 · 17:15P. Oplt1.6112127113D. Marasek2.2010101161LJul 30 · 12:23P. Oplt2.63119911102A. Radkovsky1.44611115123
J. Jnr10
WSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123LSep 2 · 18:30J. Jnr2.63109111152M. Hajek1.44121199113WSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr1.837101111133P. Orlowski1.83111259112WAug 25 · 18:15J. Jnr1.83411114113T. Hanke1.8311931172WAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181WAug 20 · 20:23P. Orlowski1.9111138792J. Jnr1.809111111113LAug 20 · 19:15J. Jnr1.7391111582P. Orlowski2.00117911113
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