TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088786
Played Sep 7Finished
Libor Smazik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411611311––––
Dominik Marasek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:29 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeLibor Smazik to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLibor Smazik above · Dominik Marasek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 46 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Libor Smazik at 55.8%
46 points played in total.
H2H Libor Smazik 13–12 Dominik Marasek Dominik Marasek has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:29What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Smazik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-12 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smazik 1521 vs Marasek 1708
Marasek
Correct
both rated, 187 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smazik 0% vs Marasek 60%
Marasek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smazik 30% vs Marasek 80%
Marasek
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smazik -5 · Marasek -1
Smazik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smazik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smazik form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmazik 1.80 / Marasek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Smazik)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13088786
Smazik1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 61 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it73% 48 of 66
Marasek1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 27 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmazik6wins
AwayMarasek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSmazik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmazik83.3%5 of 6
AwayMarasek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smazik6Marasek4n = 10Smazik took 6 of 10
S2Smazik5Marasek5n = 10split evenly
S3Smazik4Marasek6n = 10Marasek took 6 of 10
S4Smazik4Marasek0n = 4Smazik took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmazikMarasekS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.832.80.0per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmazikMarasekBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 406 vs 123 / 24451.5%50.4%209 / 406 vs 123 / 244Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmazikSmazik 1.80/Marasek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Smazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 14:30L. Smazik—4630D. Marasek—1111113
WJun 2 · 14:45L. Smazik—11116113D. Marasek—981181
LJun 1 · 13:15L. Smazik—6480D. Marasek—1111113
LMay 27 · 10:15L. Smazik—11860D. Marasek—1311113
WApr 30 · 13:45L. Smazik—117711113D. Marasek—81111682
WApr 14 · 15:30L. Smazik—1111113D. Marasek—6980
WMar 16 · 14:15L. Smazik—1111123D. Marasek—55100
LJan 29 · 16:15L. Smazik—13961152D. Marasek—1111119113
WJan 22 · 17:24L. Smazik—91111113D. Marasek—119291
WJan 22 · 16:15L. Smazik—1111113D. Marasek—9380
L. Smazik10
LSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik2.10101140P. Oplt1.671213113LSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113LSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac2.3811117113L. Smazik1.53761151LSep 5 · 14:45Z. Vasatko3.0051111123L. Smazik1.361184101LSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351WJul 16 · 16:18L. Smazik1.501111113T. Hucko2.508630WJul 16 · 15:45L. Provaznik1.736790L. Smazik2.001111113LJul 16 · 14:45P. Semrad2.00111110113L. Smazik1.73561251LJul 16 · 13:15T. Hucko2.6361111113L. Smazik1.44117881WJul 15 · 12:58L. Smazik1.67141158113P. Semrad2.10125111192
D. Marasek10
LSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991LSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171WSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113WSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123WSep 1 · 16:49D. Marasek1.611111113L. Kolman2.209540WSep 1 · 15:45D. Marasek1.8311207113M. Svitac1.836181171WSep 1 · 14:15L. Kolman1.836980D. Marasek1.831111113WSep 1 · 13:45P. Semrad1.441213161342D. Marasek2.6310151811113WAug 24 · 17:03R. Merkl2.50661181D. Marasek1.5011118113
Upcoming Matches
L. Smazik
Nothing scheduled
D. Marasek
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