Dominik Marasek vs Libor Smazik 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #13093908

Played Sep 7Finished

Dominik Marasek

Home

1.83

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1151517114911117

Libor Smazik

Away

1.83

At publish

Lost last 7

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 7

How it is goingDominik Marasek above · Libor Smazik below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 15-17

Set 3 · 11-4

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 11-7

Point 101 set 5, 11-7

101 points played in total.

H2H Dominik Marasek 12–13 Libor Smazik Dominik Marasek has won 12 of their 25 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

Same-day rematch · 2h before this match

Marasek beat Smazik 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marasek)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Smazik form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMarasek 1.83 / Smazik 1.83

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Marasek)+4.0pp

Setka Cup · #13093908

Marasek1.83

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

Smazik1.83

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 7

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMarasek4wins

AwaySmazik6wins

2 of 10 to a deciderSmazik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMarasek75%3 of 4

AwaySmazik83.3%5 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Marasek4Smazik6n = 10Smazik took 6 of 10

S2Marasek5Smazik5n = 10split evenly

S3Marasek6Smazik4n = 10Marasek took 6 of 10

S4Marasek0Smazik4n = 4Smazik took 4 of 4

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home330%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricMarasekSmazikM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.832.80.0per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMarasekSmazikBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 245 vs 209 / 40750.2%51.4%123 / 245 vs 209 / 407Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Marasek

Marasek 1.83/Smazik 1.83

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Marasek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Marasek won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 7 · 14:30D. Marasek—1111113L. Smazik—4630

LJun 2 · 14:45D. Marasek—981181L. Smazik—11116113

WJun 1 · 13:15D. Marasek—1111113L. Smazik—6480

WMay 27 · 10:15D. Marasek—1311113L. Smazik—11860

LApr 30 · 13:45D. Marasek—81111682L. Smazik—117711113

LApr 14 · 15:30D. Marasek—6980L. Smazik—1111113

LMar 16 · 14:15D. Marasek—55100L. Smazik—1111123

WJan 29 · 16:15D. Marasek—1111119113L. Smazik—13961152

LJan 22 · 17:24D. Marasek—119291L. Smazik—91111113

LJan 22 · 16:15D. Marasek—9380L. Smazik—1111113

D. Marasek10

LSep 7 · 16:00D. Marasek2.10101111892P. Oplt1.67127511113 WSep 7 · 14:30L. Smazik1.804630D. Marasek1.911111113 LSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292 WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991 LSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171 WSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113 WSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123 WSep 1 · 16:49D. Marasek1.611111113L. Kolman2.209540 WSep 1 · 15:45D. Marasek1.8311207113M. Svitac1.836181171 WSep 1 · 14:15L. Kolman1.836980D. Marasek1.831111113

L. Smazik10

LSep 7 · 15:30L. Smazik2.00481191P. Semrad1.7311118113 LSep 7 · 14:30L. Smazik1.804630D. Marasek1.911111113 LSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik2.10101140P. Oplt1.671213113 LSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113 LSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac2.3811117113L. Smazik1.53761151 LSep 5 · 14:45Z. Vasatko3.0051111123L. Smazik1.361184101 LSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351 WJul 16 · 16:18L. Smazik1.501111113T. Hucko2.508630 WJul 16 · 15:45L. Provaznik1.736790L. Smazik2.001111113 LJul 16 · 14:45P. Semrad2.00111110113L. Smazik1.73561251

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