TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13091009
Played Sep 7Finished
Dominik Marasek
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012117115811911
Pavel Oplt
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Oplt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Marasek above · Pavel Oplt below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Pavel Oplt at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Marasek 6–8 Pavel Oplt Dominik Marasek has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:38What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Oplt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Oplt
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marasek 1708 vs Oplt 1604
Marasek
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marasek 60% vs Oplt 40%
Marasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marasek 80% vs Oplt 50%
Marasek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marasek +1 · Oplt -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Oplt) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oplt form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarasek 2.10 / Oplt 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Oplt)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13091009
Marasek2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 27 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Oplt1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 28 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarasek4wins
AwayOplt6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderOplt leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarasek50%3 of 6
AwayOplt75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marasek6Oplt4n = 10Marasek took 6 of 10
S2Marasek4Oplt6n = 10Oplt took 6 of 10
S3Marasek4Oplt6n = 10Oplt took 6 of 10
S4Marasek7Oplt3n = 10Marasek took 7 of 10
S5Marasek1Oplt4n = 5Oplt took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarasekOpltM − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.041.7+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarasekOpltBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 244 vs 109 / 21050.4%51.9%123 / 244 vs 109 / 210Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpltMarasek 2.10/Oplt 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Oplt · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Oplt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 20:18D. Marasek—711121242P. Oplt—1171410113
WAug 10 · 19:15D. Marasek—11711113P. Oplt—711561
LAug 4 · 17:15D. Marasek—10101161P. Oplt—12127113
LJul 29 · 20:17D. Marasek—91171162P. Oplt—115118113
WJul 29 · 18:15D. Marasek—91111113P. Oplt—116941
LMay 27 · 11:45D. Marasek—117781P. Oplt—91111113
LMay 7 · 14:15D. Marasek—11116772P. Oplt—471111113
LNov 13 · 18:05D. Marasek—111151172P. Oplt—813118113
WNov 13 · 16:45D. Marasek—1251211123P. Oplt—1011147102
WAug 19 · 14:00D. Marasek—11611113P. Oplt—411941
D. Marasek10
WSep 7 · 16:38D. Marasek1.831115119113L. Smazik1.8351741172WSep 7 · 14:30L. Smazik1.804630D. Marasek1.911111113LSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991LSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171WSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113WSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123WSep 1 · 16:49D. Marasek1.611111113L. Kolman2.209540WSep 1 · 15:45D. Marasek1.8311207113M. Svitac1.836181171WSep 1 · 14:15L. Kolman1.836980D. Marasek1.831111113
P. Oplt10
LSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890WSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik2.10101140P. Oplt1.671213113WAug 10 · 20:18D. Marasek2.10711121242P. Oplt1.671171410113LAug 10 · 19:15P. Oplt1.61711561D. Marasek2.2011711113LAug 10 · 18:15P. Oplt1.53106111152M. Hajek2.38121179113LAug 10 · 17:15P. Oplt1.44101161182A. Pavlik2.63129118113WAug 4 · 20:28A. Pavlik2.1089110P. Oplt1.671111133LAug 4 · 19:15P. Oplt1.6711113962A. Pavlik2.10881111113WAug 4 · 18:15P. Oplt1.67138711113J. Jnr2.10111111462WAug 4 · 17:15P. Oplt1.6112127113D. Marasek2.2010101161
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