TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116637
Played Sep 12Finished
Libor Smazik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116108––––
Zdenek Vasatko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeLibor Smazik to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLibor Smazik above · Zdenek Vasatko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-8
Point 53 set 3, 10-8 — our read held Libor Smazik at 63.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Libor Smazik 21–10 Zdenek Vasatko Zdenek Vasatko has won 10 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:27What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Smazik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-10 in 31
Smazik
Correct
gap of 11 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smazik 1479 vs Vasatko 1667
Vasatko
Wrong
both rated, 188 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smazik 0% vs Vasatko 40%
Vasatko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smazik 0% vs Vasatko 50%
Vasatko
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smazik -5 · Vasatko +1
Smazik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smazik) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vasatko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmazik 1.80 / Vasatko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Smazik)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13116637
Smazik1.80
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite48% won 58 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it71% 45 of 63
Vasatko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 29 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmazik7wins
AwayVasatko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSmazik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmazik83.3%5 of 6
AwayVasatko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smazik6Vasatko4n = 10Smazik took 6 of 10
S2Smazik8Vasatko2n = 10Smazik took 8 of 10
S3Smazik7Vasatko3n = 10Smazik took 7 of 10
S4Smazik2Vasatko2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmazikVasatkoS − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.829.9+4.9per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmazikVasatkoBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 404 vs 144 / 28850.3%50%203 / 404 vs 144 / 288Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmazikSmazik 1.80/Vasatko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Smazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Smazik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 14:45L. Smazik—1184101Z. Vasatko—51111123
WMay 24 · 12:00L. Smazik—511116113Z. Vasatko—11891172
LMay 23 · 12:44L. Smazik—3750Z. Vasatko—1111113
WMay 23 · 11:45L. Smazik—1111113Z. Vasatko—8860
WMar 24 · 12:00L. Smazik—1111133Z. Vasatko—76110
WFeb 16 · 17:15L. Smazik—1111113Z. Vasatko—55100
WFeb 16 · 16:15L. Smazik—1111113Z. Vasatko—6630
WDec 16 · 13:00L. Smazik—1111103Z. Vasatko—1950
WDec 15 · 10:15L. Smazik—71111113Z. Vasatko—115691
LNov 11 · 16:45L. Smazik—91181482Z. Vasatko—1191112113
L. Smazik10
LSep 10 · 12:18M. Hajek2.001111113L. Smazik1.737530LSep 10 · 11:15M. Svitac2.1013119113L. Smazik1.671181181LSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113LSep 10 · 09:45L. Smazik1.53611761M. Hajek2.3811811113LSep 7 · 16:38D. Marasek1.831115119113L. Smazik1.8351741172LSep 7 · 15:30L. Smazik2.00481191P. Semrad1.7311118113LSep 7 · 14:30L. Smazik1.804630D. Marasek1.911111113LSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik2.10101140P. Oplt1.671213113LSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113LSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac2.3811117113L. Smazik1.53761151
Z. Vasatko10
WSep 11 · 12:44Z. Vasatko1.91111111113P. Semrad1.80913151LSep 11 · 11:45M. Hajek1.7391311113Z. Vasatko2.001111381LSep 11 · 10:45P. Semrad1.7311115113Z. Vasatko2.00281171WSep 11 · 09:15P. Oplt1.8061080Z. Vasatko1.911112113LSep 8 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.7395121162M. Svitac2.001111108113WSep 8 · 11:45Z. Vasatko2.631111113L. Kolman1.449640WSep 8 · 10:15T. Kanka2.38116651Z. Vasatko1.5361111113WSep 8 · 09:45M. Svitac2.00119111052Z. Vasatko1.73311912113LSep 7 · 12:58L. Kolman1.40111111113Z. Vasatko2.75913691LSep 7 · 12:00Z. Vasatko2.004980L. Kolman1.731111113
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