TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111630
Played Sep 11Finished
Petr Semrad
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
112118511117––
Zdenek Vasatko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:34 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Semrad above · Zdenek Vasatko below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 66 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Petr Semrad at 56.9%
66 points played in total.
H2H Petr Semrad 15–12 Zdenek Vasatko Zdenek Vasatko has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:34What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Semrad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-12 in 27
Semrad
Correct
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semrad 1730 vs Vasatko 1675
Semrad
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semrad 100% vs Vasatko 80%
Semrad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semrad 80% vs Vasatko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Semrad +5 · Vasatko +1
Semrad
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Semrad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vasatko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemrad 1.73 / Vasatko 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Semrad)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111630
Semrad1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 94 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it91% 40 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it69% 61 of 89
Vasatko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog54% won 29 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemrad5wins
AwayVasatko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemrad60%3 of 5
AwayVasatko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semrad5Vasatko5n = 10split evenly
S2Semrad6Vasatko4n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S3Semrad6Vasatko4n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S4Semrad3Vasatko5n = 8Vasatko took 5 of 8
S5Semrad2Vasatko3n = 5Vasatko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemradVasatkoS − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.138.6+0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemradVasatkoBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 529 vs 143 / 28551.2%50.2%271 / 529 vs 143 / 285Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradSemrad 1.73/Vasatko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 16:18P. Semrad—1011121162Z. Vasatko—129144113
WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad—7111111113Z. Vasatko—11741382
LMay 24 · 09:30P. Semrad—118371Z. Vasatko—51111113
LMay 2 · 09:15P. Semrad—6720Z. Vasatko—1111113
LMar 21 · 14:15P. Semrad—6111110112Z. Vasatko—115512133
WMar 15 · 07:00P. Semrad—1111113Z. Vasatko—9680
WMar 13 · 15:45P. Semrad—14117113Z. Vasatko—1261181
LFeb 4 · 07:00P. Semrad—11911322Z. Vasatko—911911113
WDec 10 · 17:21P. Semrad—61111113Z. Vasatko—118571
WDec 10 · 16:15P. Semrad—115118113Z. Vasatko—31151142
P. Semrad10
LSep 11 · 12:44Z. Vasatko1.91111111113P. Semrad1.80913151WSep 11 · 11:15P. Oplt1.911081161P. Semrad1.8012116113WSep 11 · 09:45P. Semrad1.671111113M. Hajek2.106760WSep 7 · 17:10P. Oplt1.9151111752P. Semrad1.80119711113WSep 7 · 15:30L. Smazik2.00481191P. Semrad1.7311118113WSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890WSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860
Z. Vasatko10
WSep 11 · 12:44Z. Vasatko1.91111111113P. Semrad1.80913151LSep 11 · 11:45M. Hajek1.7391311113Z. Vasatko2.001111381WSep 11 · 09:15P. Oplt1.8061080Z. Vasatko1.911112113LSep 8 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.7395121162M. Svitac2.001111108113WSep 8 · 11:45Z. Vasatko2.631111113L. Kolman1.449640WSep 8 · 10:15T. Kanka2.38116651Z. Vasatko1.5361111113WSep 8 · 09:45M. Svitac2.00119111052Z. Vasatko1.73311912113LSep 7 · 12:58L. Kolman1.40111111113Z. Vasatko2.75913691WSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162LSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382
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