TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094019
Played Sep 7Finished
Pavel Oplt
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511119117711511
Petr Semrad
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Oplt above · Petr Semrad below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 88 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Petr Semrad at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Oplt 8–10 Petr Semrad Pavel Oplt has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Semrad beat Oplt 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:06What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Semrad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Semrad
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oplt 1617 vs Semrad 1711
Semrad
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oplt 60% vs Semrad 80%
Semrad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oplt 50% vs Semrad 70%
Semrad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oplt +1 · Semrad +3
Semrad
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Semrad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semrad form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOplt 1.91 / Semrad 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Semrad)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13094019
Oplt1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 12 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back36% 4 of 11
Semrad1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 93 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it91% 40 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it68% 61 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOplt5wins
AwaySemrad5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOplt80%4 of 5
AwaySemrad80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oplt5Semrad5n = 10split evenly
S2Oplt4Semrad6n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S3Oplt4Semrad6n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S4Oplt6Semrad2n = 8Oplt took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOpltSemradO − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.937.0−1.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOpltSemradBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 211 vs 273 / 53552.1%51%110 / 211 vs 273 / 535Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradOplt 1.91/Semrad 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 15:00P. Oplt—9890P. Semrad—1111113
WJun 14 · 14:45P. Oplt—13118113P. Semrad—1191161
LJun 11 · 16:24P. Oplt—5711101P. Semrad—11117123
LJun 11 · 14:45P. Oplt—11461142P. Semrad—911116113
WMay 4 · 20:48P. Oplt—111411123P. Semrad—41213101
WMay 4 · 17:15P. Oplt—11116133P. Semrad—2511111
WFeb 27 · 08:45P. Oplt—11711113P. Semrad—411791
LFeb 23 · 21:40P. Oplt—581161P. Semrad—11119113
LFeb 23 · 20:45P. Oplt—8740P. Semrad—1111113
WFeb 4 · 09:00P. Oplt—101111113P. Semrad—129971
P. Oplt10
WSep 7 · 16:00D. Marasek2.10101111892P. Oplt1.67127511113LSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890WSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik2.10101140P. Oplt1.671213113WAug 10 · 20:18D. Marasek2.10711121242P. Oplt1.671171410113LAug 10 · 19:15P. Oplt1.61711561D. Marasek2.2011711113LAug 10 · 18:15P. Oplt1.53106111152M. Hajek2.38121179113LAug 10 · 17:15P. Oplt1.44101161182A. Pavlik2.63129118113WAug 4 · 20:28A. Pavlik2.1089110P. Oplt1.671111133LAug 4 · 19:15P. Oplt1.6711113962A. Pavlik2.10881111113WAug 4 · 18:15P. Oplt1.67138711113J. Jnr2.10111111462
P. Semrad10
WSep 7 · 15:30L. Smazik2.00481191P. Semrad1.7311118113WSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890WSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860WSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351LSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991WSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171LSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111
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