TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111278
Played Sep 11Finished
Petr Semrad
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117116––––
Miroslav Hajek
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Semrad above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 52 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Petr Semrad at 55.1%
52 points played in total.
H2H Petr Semrad 17–19 Miroslav Hajek Petr Semrad has won 17 of their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:48What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Semrad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-19 in 36
Hajek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semrad 1719 vs Hajek 1650
Semrad
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semrad 80% vs Hajek 40%
Semrad
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semrad 80% vs Hajek 50%
Semrad
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Semrad +4 · Hajek +1
Semrad
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Semrad) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semrad form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemrad 1.67 / Hajek 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Semrad)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13111278
Semrad1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 94 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it91% 40 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it69% 61 of 89
Hajek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 45 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back26% 14 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemrad5wins
AwayHajek5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemrad57.1%4 of 7
AwayHajek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semrad7Hajek3n = 10Semrad took 7 of 10
S2Semrad5Hajek5n = 10split evenly
S3Semrad9Hajek1n = 10Semrad took 9 of 10
S4Semrad3Hajek5n = 8Hajek took 5 of 8
S5Semrad1Hajek5n = 6Hajek took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemradHajekS − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.837.6+4.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemradHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 536 vs 363 / 67351.1%53.9%274 / 536 vs 363 / 673Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradSemrad 1.67/Hajek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.4%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 09:45P. Semrad—1111113M. Hajek—6870
LMay 3 · 15:45P. Semrad—117119102M. Hajek—711811123
LMay 2 · 12:49P. Semrad—81191152M. Hajek—11711493
WMay 2 · 11:45P. Semrad—116115113M. Hajek—61191172
LApr 26 · 10:45P. Semrad—1110116102M. Hajek—712811123
WApr 8 · 15:45P. Semrad—1111113M. Hajek—7650
WMar 31 · 14:45P. Semrad—81111113M. Hajek—116391
LMar 20 · 09:13P. Semrad—1110111042M. Hajek—412712113
WMar 20 · 07:45P. Semrad—11811113M. Hajek—611941
LMar 19 · 13:49P. Semrad—71111562M. Hajek—117711113
P. Semrad10
LSep 11 · 12:44Z. Vasatko1.91111111113P. Semrad1.80913151WSep 11 · 11:15P. Oplt1.911081161P. Semrad1.8012116113WSep 11 · 10:45P. Semrad1.7311115113Z. Vasatko2.00281171WSep 7 · 17:10P. Oplt1.9151111752P. Semrad1.80119711113WSep 7 · 15:30L. Smazik2.00481191P. Semrad1.7311118113WSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890WSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860
M. Hajek10
LSep 11 · 12:13M. Hajek2.25117691P. Oplt1.5761111113WSep 11 · 11:45M. Hajek1.7391311113Z. Vasatko2.001111381LSep 11 · 10:15P. Oplt1.6111511113M. Hajek2.20311451WSep 10 · 12:18M. Hajek2.001111113L. Smazik1.737530LSep 10 · 11:45M. Hajek1.831411881L. Kolman1.8316611113LSep 10 · 10:15M. Svitac2.25811911113M. Hajek1.5711911832WSep 10 · 09:45L. Smazik1.53611761M. Hajek2.3811811113LSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960
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