TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111380
Played Sep 11Finished
Pavel Oplt
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113511114115––
Miroslav Hajek
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:14 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timePavel Oplt to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Oplt above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 61 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Pavel Oplt at 58.1%
61 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Oplt 9–7 Miroslav Hajek Miroslav Hajek has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:14What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Oplt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Oplt
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oplt 1598 vs Hajek 1638
Hajek
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oplt 40% vs Hajek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oplt 40% vs Hajek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oplt -2 · Hajek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Oplt)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oplt form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOplt 1.61 / Hajek 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Oplt)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111380
Oplt1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 30 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Hajek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 45 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back26% 14 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOplt6wins
AwayHajek4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOplt leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOplt100%6 of 6
AwayHajek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oplt6Hajek4n = 10Oplt took 6 of 10
S2Oplt5Hajek5n = 10split evenly
S3Oplt6Hajek4n = 10Oplt took 6 of 10
S4Oplt4Hajek1n = 5Oplt took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOpltHajekO − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.234.0+2.2per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOpltHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 205 vs 362 / 66953.7%54.1%110 / 205 vs 362 / 669Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpltOplt 1.61/Hajek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Oplt · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Oplt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 18:15P. Oplt—106111152M. Hajek—121179113
WMay 7 · 15:15P. Oplt—11119113M. Hajek—861131
LApr 24 · 09:15P. Oplt—111180M. Hajek—1313113
WApr 16 · 07:15P. Oplt—1212113M. Hajek—101070
WMar 30 · 20:48P. Oplt—12134123M. Hajek—101111101
WMar 30 · 17:15P. Oplt—111011113M. Hajek—712951
LMar 3 · 19:30P. Oplt—9780M. Hajek—1111113
WFeb 23 · 19:45P. Oplt—1115113M. Hajek—81370
LNov 25 · 17:45P. Oplt—981161M. Hajek—11119103
WNov 25 · 16:45P. Oplt—1111113M. Hajek—7770
P. Oplt10
WSep 11 · 12:13M. Hajek2.25117691P. Oplt1.5761111113LSep 11 · 11:15P. Oplt1.911081161P. Semrad1.8012116113LSep 11 · 09:15P. Oplt1.8061080Z. Vasatko1.911112113LSep 7 · 17:10P. Oplt1.9151111752P. Semrad1.80119711113WSep 7 · 16:00D. Marasek2.10101111892P. Oplt1.67127511113LSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890WSep 7 · 13:30L. Smazik2.10101140P. Oplt1.671213113WAug 10 · 20:18D. Marasek2.10711121242P. Oplt1.671171410113LAug 10 · 19:15P. Oplt1.61711561D. Marasek2.2011711113LAug 10 · 18:15P. Oplt1.53106111152M. Hajek2.38121179113
M. Hajek10
LSep 11 · 12:13M. Hajek2.25117691P. Oplt1.5761111113WSep 11 · 11:45M. Hajek1.7391311113Z. Vasatko2.001111381LSep 11 · 09:45P. Semrad1.671111113M. Hajek2.106760WSep 10 · 12:18M. Hajek2.001111113L. Smazik1.737530LSep 10 · 11:45M. Hajek1.831411881L. Kolman1.8316611113LSep 10 · 10:15M. Svitac2.25811911113M. Hajek1.5711911832WSep 10 · 09:45L. Smazik1.53611761M. Hajek2.3811811113LSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113WAug 10 · 18:15P. Oplt1.53106111152M. Hajek2.38121179113
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