TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116609
Played Sep 12Finished
Petr Semrad
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119114117––––
Zdenek Vasatko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Semrad above · Zdenek Vasatko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Petr Semrad at 56.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Petr Semrad 16–13 Zdenek Vasatko Zdenek Vasatko has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Semrad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-13 in 29
Semrad
Correct
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semrad 1755 vs Vasatko 1646
Semrad
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semrad 80% vs Vasatko 40%
Semrad
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semrad 80% vs Vasatko 50%
Semrad
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Semrad +1 · Vasatko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Semrad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semrad form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemrad 1.73 / Vasatko 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Semrad)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13116609
Semrad1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 94 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it69% 62 of 90
Vasatko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 29 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemrad4wins
AwayVasatko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVasatko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemrad60%3 of 5
AwayVasatko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semrad5Vasatko5n = 10split evenly
S2Semrad7Vasatko3n = 10Semrad took 7 of 10
S3Semrad4Vasatko6n = 10Vasatko took 6 of 10
S4Semrad3Vasatko5n = 8Vasatko took 5 of 8
S5Semrad1Vasatko3n = 4Vasatko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemradVasatkoS − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.239.3−2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemradVasatkoBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 529 vs 144 / 28951.2%49.8%271 / 529 vs 144 / 289Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradSemrad 1.73/Vasatko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 12:44P. Semrad—913151Z. Vasatko—111111113
WSep 11 · 10:45P. Semrad—11115113Z. Vasatko—281171
LSep 5 · 16:18P. Semrad—1011121162Z. Vasatko—129144113
WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad—7111111113Z. Vasatko—11741382
LMay 24 · 09:30P. Semrad—118371Z. Vasatko—51111113
LMay 2 · 09:15P. Semrad—6720Z. Vasatko—1111113
LMar 21 · 14:15P. Semrad—6111110112Z. Vasatko—115512133
WMar 15 · 07:00P. Semrad—1111113Z. Vasatko—9680
WMar 13 · 15:45P. Semrad—14117113Z. Vasatko—1261181
LFeb 4 · 07:00P. Semrad—11911322Z. Vasatko—911911113
P. Semrad10
LSep 12 · 11:30L. Smazik2.0011612113P. Semrad1.738111091WSep 12 · 10:00P. Semrad1.53101212143M. Hajek2.38121010121LSep 11 · 12:44Z. Vasatko1.91111111113P. Semrad1.80913151WSep 11 · 11:15P. Oplt1.911081161P. Semrad1.8012116113WSep 11 · 10:45P. Semrad1.7311115113Z. Vasatko2.00281171WSep 11 · 09:45P. Semrad1.671111113M. Hajek2.106760WSep 7 · 17:10P. Oplt1.9151111752P. Semrad1.80119711113WSep 7 · 15:30L. Smazik2.00481191P. Semrad1.7311118113WSep 7 · 15:00P. Semrad1.911111113P. Oplt1.809890WSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292
Z. Vasatko10
LSep 12 · 09:30L. Smazik1.801111103Z. Vasatko1.917680WSep 11 · 12:44Z. Vasatko1.91111111113P. Semrad1.80913151LSep 11 · 11:45M. Hajek1.7391311113Z. Vasatko2.001111381LSep 11 · 10:45P. Semrad1.7311115113Z. Vasatko2.00281171WSep 11 · 09:15P. Oplt1.8061080Z. Vasatko1.911112113LSep 8 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.7395121162M. Svitac2.001111108113WSep 8 · 11:45Z. Vasatko2.631111113L. Kolman1.449640WSep 8 · 10:15T. Kanka2.38116651Z. Vasatko1.5361111113WSep 8 · 09:45M. Svitac2.00119111052Z. Vasatko1.73311912113LSep 7 · 12:58L. Kolman1.40111111113Z. Vasatko2.75913691
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