TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131356
Played Sep 15Finished
Zdenek Vasatko
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
114711511711––
Petr Semrad
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:47 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Vasatko above · Petr Semrad below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 67 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Petr Semrad at 60.9%
67 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Vasatko 13–17 Petr Semrad Zdenek Vasatko has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:47What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Semrad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-17 in 30
Semrad
Correct
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vasatko 1630 vs Semrad 1716
Semrad
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vasatko 60% vs Semrad 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vasatko 50% vs Semrad 70%
Semrad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vasatko +1 · Semrad -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Semrad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vasatko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVasatko 2.20 / Semrad 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Semrad)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13131356
Vasatko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog55% won 28 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back24% 6 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Semrad1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 89 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it71% 60 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVasatko5wins
AwaySemrad5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVasatko80%4 of 5
AwaySemrad80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vasatko5Semrad5n = 10split evenly
S2Vasatko2Semrad8n = 10Semrad took 8 of 10
S3Vasatko6Semrad4n = 10Vasatko took 6 of 10
S4Vasatko4Semrad3n = 7Vasatko took 4 of 7
S5Vasatko2Semrad1n = 3Vasatko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVasatkoSemradV − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.236.9−0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVasatkoSemradBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 290 vs 273 / 53349.7%51.2%144 / 290 vs 273 / 533Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradVasatko 2.20/Semrad 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 11:00Z. Vasatko209470P. Semrad331111113
WSep 11 · 12:44Z. Vasatko44111111113P. Semrad28913151
LSep 11 · 10:45Z. Vasatko28281171P. Semrad3811115113
WSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko50129144113P. Semrad501011121162
LSep 5 · 15:15Z. Vasatko4311741382P. Semrad517111111113
WMay 24 · 09:30Z. Vasatko3851111113P. Semrad29118371
WMay 2 · 09:15Z. Vasatko331111113P. Semrad156720
WMar 21 · 14:15Z. Vasatko46115512133P. Semrad496111110112
LMar 15 · 07:00Z. Vasatko239680P. Semrad331111113
LMar 13 · 15:45Z. Vasatko371261181P. Semrad4314117113
Z. Vasatko10
WSep 15 · 14:15Z. Vasatko2.0091111133M. Hajek1.731189111LSep 15 · 13:15Z. Vasatko1.6771181182D. Marasek2.10119115113WSep 14 · 12:24M. Hajek1.6151281192Z. Vasatko2.201110117113LSep 14 · 11:15Z. Vasatko2.10511961M. Hajek1.6711911113WSep 14 · 10:15Z. Vasatko2.101111113L. Smazik1.677290WSep 14 · 09:15Z. Vasatko1.731111113M. Svitac2.007650LSep 12 · 13:09Z. Vasatko1.809970M. Hajek1.91111193WSep 12 · 12:00M. Hajek1.7371111462Z. Vasatko2.00119711113LSep 12 · 11:00P. Semrad1.731111113Z. Vasatko2.009470LSep 12 · 09:30L. Smazik1.801111103Z. Vasatko1.917680
P. Semrad10
LSep 15 · 14:45P. Semrad1.57131011672D. Marasek2.251112911113LSep 15 · 13:45P. Semrad1.671371011112M. Hajek2.101111127133WSep 12 · 12:38P. Semrad1.73111193L. Smazik2.005580LSep 12 · 11:30L. Smazik2.0011612113P. Semrad1.738111091WSep 12 · 11:00P. Semrad1.731111113Z. Vasatko2.009470WSep 12 · 10:00P. Semrad1.53101212143M. Hajek2.38121010121LSep 11 · 12:44Z. Vasatko1.91111111113P. Semrad1.80913151WSep 11 · 11:15P. Oplt1.911081161P. Semrad1.8012116113WSep 11 · 10:45P. Semrad1.7311115113Z. Vasatko2.00281171WSep 11 · 09:45P. Semrad1.671111113M. Hajek2.106760
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