TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116916
Played Sep 12Finished
Miroslav Hajek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711119117411611
Zdenek Vasatko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslav Hajek above · Zdenek Vasatko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 88 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Miroslav Hajek at 54.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Hajek 13–9 Zdenek Vasatko Zdenek Vasatko has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hajek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-9 in 22
Hajek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hajek 1612 vs Vasatko 1623
Vasatko
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hajek 40% vs Vasatko 20%
Hajek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hajek 40% vs Vasatko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hajek +1 · Vasatko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hajek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vasatko form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHajek 1.73 / Vasatko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hajek)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13116916
Hajek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 75 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it91% 40 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it76% 58 of 76
Vasatko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 29 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHajek7wins
AwayVasatko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHajek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHajek83.3%5 of 6
AwayVasatko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hajek6Vasatko4n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S2Hajek7Vasatko3n = 10Hajek took 7 of 10
S3Hajek6Vasatko4n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S4Hajek5Vasatko1n = 6Hajek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHajekVasatkoH − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.631.9+4.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHajekVasatkoBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 674 vs 144 / 29054%49.7%364 / 674 vs 144 / 290Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HajekHajek 1.73/Vasatko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vasatko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 11:45M. Hajek4491311113Z. Vasatko331111381
WSep 4 · 12:43M. Hajek351311113Z. Vasatko2911990
LSep 4 · 11:45M. Hajek29116571Z. Vasatko4291111113
WAug 25 · 11:45M. Hajek4411814113Z. Vasatko359111231
WAug 1 · 13:30M. Hajek4171112113Z. Vasatko341191041
LMay 20 · 15:15M. Hajek4581171182Z. Vasatko45119113113
WMay 14 · 11:45M. Hajek4011117113Z. Vasatko23451131
WMay 12 · 13:45M. Hajek331111113Z. Vasatko257990
WMay 7 · 06:15M. Hajek331111113Z. Vasatko206680
LMay 4 · 10:15M. Hajek229850Z. Vasatko331111113
M. Hajek10
WSep 12 · 13:09Z. Vasatko1.809970M. Hajek1.91111193WSep 12 · 10:30L. Smazik1.83125741M. Hajek1.83101111113LSep 12 · 10:00P. Semrad1.53101212143M. Hajek2.38121010121LSep 11 · 12:13M. Hajek2.25117691P. Oplt1.5761111113WSep 11 · 11:45M. Hajek1.7391311113Z. Vasatko2.001111381LSep 11 · 10:15P. Oplt1.6111511113M. Hajek2.20311451LSep 11 · 09:45P. Semrad1.671111113M. Hajek2.106760WSep 10 · 12:18M. Hajek2.001111113L. Smazik1.737530LSep 10 · 11:45M. Hajek1.831411881L. Kolman1.8316611113LSep 10 · 10:15M. Svitac2.25811911113M. Hajek1.5711911832
Z. Vasatko10
LSep 12 · 13:09Z. Vasatko1.809970M. Hajek1.91111193LSep 12 · 11:00P. Semrad1.731111113Z. Vasatko2.009470LSep 12 · 09:30L. Smazik1.801111103Z. Vasatko1.917680WSep 11 · 12:44Z. Vasatko1.91111111113P. Semrad1.80913151LSep 11 · 11:45M. Hajek1.7391311113Z. Vasatko2.001111381LSep 11 · 10:45P. Semrad1.7311115113Z. Vasatko2.00281171WSep 11 · 09:15P. Oplt1.8061080Z. Vasatko1.911112113LSep 8 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.7395121162M. Svitac2.001111108113WSep 8 · 11:45Z. Vasatko2.631111113L. Kolman1.449640WSep 8 · 10:15T. Kanka2.38116651Z. Vasatko1.5361111113
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