TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126298
Played Sep 14Finished
Zdenek Vasatko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117112119––––
Libor Smazik
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:14 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeLibor Smazik to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZdenek Vasatko above · Libor Smazik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 51 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Libor Smazik at 64.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Vasatko 10–22 Libor Smazik Zdenek Vasatko has won 10 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:14What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Smazik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-22 in 32
Smazik
Wrong
gap of 12 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vasatko 1624 vs Smazik 1531
Vasatko
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vasatko 40% vs Smazik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vasatko 40% vs Smazik 20%
Vasatko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vasatko +1 · Smazik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Smazik) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smazik form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVasatko 2.10 / Smazik 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Smazik)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13126298
Vasatko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 26 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Smazik1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 55 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it71% 42 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVasatko2wins
AwaySmazik8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSmazik leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVasatko33.3%1 of 3
AwaySmazik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vasatko3Smazik7n = 10Smazik took 7 of 10
S2Vasatko2Smazik8n = 10Smazik took 8 of 10
S3Vasatko2Smazik8n = 10Smazik took 8 of 10
S4Vasatko2Smazik1n = 3Vasatko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricVasatkoSmazikV − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match26.633.0−6.4per matchSweeps16−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVasatkoSmazikBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 289 vs 205 / 40549.5%50.6%143 / 289 vs 205 / 405Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmazikVasatko 2.10/Smazik 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Smazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vasatko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 09:30Z. Vasatko217680L. Smazik321111103
WSep 5 · 14:45Z. Vasatko3951111123L. Smazik331184101
LMay 24 · 12:00Z. Vasatko4611891172L. Smazik44511116113
WMay 23 · 12:44Z. Vasatko331111113L. Smazik153750
LMay 23 · 11:45Z. Vasatko228860L. Smazik331111113
LMar 24 · 12:00Z. Vasatko2476110L. Smazik351111133
LFeb 16 · 17:15Z. Vasatko2055100L. Smazik331111113
LFeb 16 · 16:15Z. Vasatko156630L. Smazik331111113
LDec 16 · 13:00Z. Vasatko151950L. Smazik321111103
LDec 15 · 10:15Z. Vasatko31115691L. Smazik4071111113
Z. Vasatko10
WSep 14 · 09:15Z. Vasatko1.731111113M. Svitac2.007650LSep 12 · 13:09Z. Vasatko1.809970M. Hajek1.91111193WSep 12 · 12:00M. Hajek1.7371111462Z. Vasatko2.00119711113LSep 12 · 11:00P. Semrad1.731111113Z. Vasatko2.009470LSep 12 · 09:30L. Smazik1.801111103Z. Vasatko1.917680WSep 11 · 12:44Z. Vasatko1.91111111113P. Semrad1.80913151LSep 11 · 11:45M. Hajek1.7391311113Z. Vasatko2.001111381LSep 11 · 10:45P. Semrad1.7311115113Z. Vasatko2.00281171WSep 11 · 09:15P. Oplt1.8061080Z. Vasatko1.911112113LSep 8 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.7395121162M. Svitac2.001111108113
L. Smazik10
LSep 14 · 09:45M. Hajek1.801111113L. Smazik1.918870LSep 12 · 12:38P. Semrad1.73111193L. Smazik2.005580WSep 12 · 11:30L. Smazik2.0011612113P. Semrad1.738111091LSep 12 · 10:30L. Smazik1.83125741M. Hajek1.83101111113WSep 12 · 09:30L. Smazik1.801111103Z. Vasatko1.917680LSep 10 · 12:18M. Hajek2.001111113L. Smazik1.737530LSep 10 · 11:15M. Svitac2.1013119113L. Smazik1.671181181LSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113LSep 10 · 09:45L. Smazik1.53611761M. Hajek2.3811811113LSep 7 · 16:38D. Marasek1.831115119113L. Smazik1.8351741172
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