TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131339
Played Sep 15Finished
Zdenek Vasatko
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711119811115811
Dominik Marasek
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:53 and never touched — 66.0% is still 66.0%
Graded at full timeZdenek Vasatko to win
66.0%
66.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZdenek Vasatko above · Dominik Marasek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Zdenek Vasatko at 66.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Vasatko 6–1 Dominik Marasek Dominik Marasek has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:53What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vasatko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Vasatko
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vasatko 1625 vs Marasek 1700
Marasek
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vasatko 60% vs Marasek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vasatko 50% vs Marasek 70%
Marasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vasatko +1 · Marasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vasatko) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marasek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVasatko 1.67 / Marasek 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vasatko)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13131339
Vasatko1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 36 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Marasek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 26 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back31% 10 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVasatko6wins
AwayMarasek1wins
2 of 7 to a deciderVasatko leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVasatko100%5 of 5
AwayMarasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vasatko5Marasek2n = 7Vasatko took 5 of 7
S2Vasatko5Marasek2n = 7Vasatko took 5 of 7
S3Vasatko6Marasek1n = 7Vasatko took 6 of 7
S4Vasatko3Marasek0n = 3Vasatko took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home457%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricVasatkoMarasekV − MBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match39.331.0+8.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVasatkoMarasekBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 292 vs 124 / 24649.7%50.4%145 / 292 vs 124 / 246Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VasatkoVasatko 1.67/Marasek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vasatko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WApr 10 · 14:45Z. Vasatko341111123D. Marasek2477100
WMar 13 · 17:14Z. Vasatko331111113D. Marasek144640
WMar 13 · 16:15Z. Vasatko341112113D. Marasek2251070
WDec 10 · 14:45Z. Vasatko495101211113D. Marasek45111210752
LSep 1 · 16:00Z. Vasatko45811511102D. Marasek52119119123
WAug 19 · 16:00Z. Vasatko381111163D. Marasek2565140
WApr 24 · 13:45Z. Vasatko4211911113D. Marasek35811971
Z. Vasatko10
LSep 15 · 15:15Z. Vasatko2.20117571P. Semrad1.6141111113WSep 15 · 14:15Z. Vasatko2.0091111133M. Hajek1.731189111WSep 14 · 12:24M. Hajek1.6151281192Z. Vasatko2.201110117113LSep 14 · 11:15Z. Vasatko2.10511961M. Hajek1.6711911113WSep 14 · 10:15Z. Vasatko2.101111113L. Smazik1.677290WSep 14 · 09:15Z. Vasatko1.731111113M. Svitac2.007650LSep 12 · 13:09Z. Vasatko1.809970M. Hajek1.91111193WSep 12 · 12:00M. Hajek1.7371111462Z. Vasatko2.00119711113LSep 12 · 11:00P. Semrad1.731111113Z. Vasatko2.009470LSep 12 · 09:30L. Smazik1.801111103Z. Vasatko1.917680
D. Marasek10
WSep 15 · 14:45P. Semrad1.57131011672D. Marasek2.251112911113WSep 7 · 16:38D. Marasek1.831115119113L. Smazik1.8351741172LSep 7 · 16:00D. Marasek2.10101111892P. Oplt1.67127511113WSep 7 · 14:30L. Smazik1.804630D. Marasek1.911111113LSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991LSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171WSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113WSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123WSep 1 · 16:49D. Marasek1.611111113L. Kolman2.209540
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