TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126411
Played Sep 14Finished
Libor Smazik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115311511119511
Matej Svitac
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLibor Smazik above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 82 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Matej Svitac at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Libor Smazik 9–8 Matej Svitac Matej Svitac has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:44What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Svitac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smazik 1520 vs Svitac 1645
Svitac
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smazik 20% vs Svitac 40%
Svitac
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smazik 20% vs Svitac 60%
Svitac
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smazik -3 · Svitac -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svitac form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmazik 1.83 / Svitac 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Svitac)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13126411
Smazik1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Svitac1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmazik4wins
AwaySvitac6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSvitac leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmazik60%3 of 5
AwaySvitac80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smazik5Svitac5n = 10split evenly
S2Smazik3Svitac7n = 10Svitac took 7 of 10
S3Smazik8Svitac2n = 10Smazik took 8 of 10
S4Smazik2Svitac6n = 8Svitac took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmazikSvitacSmazik − SvitacBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.838.0−2.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmazikSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 406 vs 216 / 39650.5%54.6%205 / 406 vs 216 / 396Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSmazik 1.83/Svitac 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 11:15L. Smazik381181181M. Svitac4413119113
LSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik26351171M. Svitac3711114113
LSep 5 · 15:45L. Smazik29761151M. Svitac4011117113
LMay 2 · 19:45L. Smazik24114631M. Svitac3961111113
WApr 27 · 09:15L. Smazik341111123M. Svitac2019100
WApr 13 · 12:14L. Smazik331111113M. Svitac249870
LApr 13 · 11:15L. Smazik35119961M. Svitac4291111113
WApr 1 · 12:00L. Smazik4011711113M. Svitac33911851
WMar 24 · 13:38L. Smazik50771111143M. Svitac48111168122
LMar 24 · 12:30L. Smazik491013115102M. Svitac531211711123
L. Smazik10
LSep 14 · 10:15Z. Vasatko2.101111113L. Smazik1.677290LSep 14 · 09:45M. Hajek1.801111113L. Smazik1.918870LSep 12 · 12:38P. Semrad1.73111193L. Smazik2.005580WSep 12 · 11:30L. Smazik2.0011612113P. Semrad1.738111091LSep 12 · 10:30L. Smazik1.83125741M. Hajek1.83101111113WSep 12 · 09:30L. Smazik1.801111103Z. Vasatko1.917680LSep 10 · 12:18M. Hajek2.001111113L. Smazik1.737530LSep 10 · 11:15M. Svitac2.1013119113L. Smazik1.671181181LSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113LSep 10 · 09:45L. Smazik1.53611761M. Hajek2.3811811113
M. Svitac10
LSep 14 · 10:45M. Hajek1.6111149113M. Svitac2.205121141LSep 14 · 09:15Z. Vasatko1.731111113M. Svitac2.007650LSep 10 · 12:48L. Kolman2.2011117113M. Svitac1.61761161WSep 10 · 11:15M. Svitac2.1013119113L. Smazik1.671181181WSep 10 · 10:15M. Svitac2.25811911113M. Hajek1.5711911832WSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac1.731111113L. Kolman2.009540WSep 8 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.7395121162M. Svitac2.001111108113WSep 8 · 11:15T. Kanka1.911312491M. Svitac1.80111411113WSep 8 · 10:45M. Svitac1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00119791LSep 8 · 09:45M. Svitac2.00119111052Z. Vasatko1.73311912113
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