TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13129390
Played Sep 14Finished
Matej Svitac
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911118411911––
Libor Smazik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Libor Smazik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11
74 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 9–9 Libor Smazik Dead even across their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Svitac beat Smazik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smazik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 1.83 / Smazik 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Svitac)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13129390
Svitac1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Smazik1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvitac6wins
AwaySmazik4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSvitac leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac75%3 of 4
AwaySmazik50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac4Smazik6n = 10Smazik took 6 of 10
S2Svitac8Smazik2n = 10Svitac took 8 of 10
S3Svitac3Smazik7n = 10Smazik took 7 of 10
S4Svitac5Smazik3n = 8Svitac took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvitacSmazikSvitac − SmazikBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.434.4+3.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacSmazikBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 397 vs 205 / 40754.7%50.4%217 / 397 vs 205 / 407Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSvitac 1.83/Smazik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Smazik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 11:45M. Svitac47511119113L. Smazik3511351152
WSep 10 · 11:15M. Svitac4413119113L. Smazik381181181
WSep 5 · 16:49M. Svitac3711114113L. Smazik26351171
WSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac4011117113L. Smazik29761151
WMay 2 · 19:45M. Svitac3961111113L. Smazik24114631
LApr 27 · 09:15M. Svitac2019100L. Smazik341111123
LApr 13 · 12:14M. Svitac249870L. Smazik331111113
WApr 13 · 11:15M. Svitac4291111113L. Smazik35119961
LApr 1 · 12:00M. Svitac33911851L. Smazik4011711113
LMar 24 · 13:38M. Svitac48111168122L. Smazik50771111143
M. Svitac10
WSep 14 · 11:45L. Smazik1.8311351152M. Svitac1.83511119113LSep 14 · 10:45M. Hajek1.6111149113M. Svitac2.205121141LSep 14 · 09:15Z. Vasatko1.731111113M. Svitac2.007650LSep 10 · 12:48L. Kolman2.2011117113M. Svitac1.61761161WSep 10 · 11:15M. Svitac2.1013119113L. Smazik1.671181181WSep 10 · 10:15M. Svitac2.25811911113M. Hajek1.5711911832WSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac1.731111113L. Kolman2.009540WSep 8 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.7395121162M. Svitac2.001111108113WSep 8 · 11:15T. Kanka1.911312491M. Svitac1.80111411113WSep 8 · 10:45M. Svitac1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00119791
L. Smazik10
LSep 14 · 11:45L. Smazik1.8311351152M. Svitac1.83511119113LSep 14 · 10:15Z. Vasatko2.101111113L. Smazik1.677290LSep 14 · 09:45M. Hajek1.801111113L. Smazik1.918870LSep 12 · 12:38P. Semrad1.73111193L. Smazik2.005580WSep 12 · 11:30L. Smazik2.0011612113P. Semrad1.738111091LSep 12 · 10:30L. Smazik1.83125741M. Hajek1.83101111113WSep 12 · 09:30L. Smazik1.801111103Z. Vasatko1.917680LSep 10 · 12:18M. Hajek2.001111113L. Smazik1.737530LSep 10 · 11:15M. Svitac2.1013119113L. Smazik1.671181181LSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113
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