TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136771
Played Sep 16Finished
Leon Kolman
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1151012611117911
Tomas Hrstka
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Tomas Hrstka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Leon Kolman at 62.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 3–1 Tomas Hrstka Tomas Hrstka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kolman
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1602 vs Hrstka 1509
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 40% vs Hrstka 20%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 40% vs Hrstka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman +1 · Hrstka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrstka form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.50 / Hrstka 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Kolman)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13136771
Kolman1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 100 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it88% 45 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it70% 79 of 113
Hrstka2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 13 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back25% 5 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKolman3wins
AwayHrstka1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderKolman leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman75%3 of 4
AwayHrstkan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman4Hrstka0n = 4Kolman took 4 of 4
S2Kolman4Hrstka0n = 4Kolman took 4 of 4
S3Kolman1Hrstka3n = 4Hrstka took 3 of 4
S4Kolman1Hrstka2n = 3Hrstka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKolmanHrstkaK − HBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match44.037.0+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanHrstkaBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 679 vs 29 / 6852.6%42.7%357 / 679 vs 29 / 68Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match40.636.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKolman 1.50/Hrstka 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hrstka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 14 · 09:30L. Kolman331111113T. Hrstka183780
LMar 24 · 10:15L. Kolman47111161182T. Hrstka49591113113
WMar 18 · 10:30L. Kolman44111110123T. Hrstka344812101
WSep 18 · 11:42L. Kolman52121487113T. Hrstka471012111132
L. Kolman10
LSep 16 · 10:15L. Kolman1.731011681L. Smazik2.0012711113WSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman1.8351111113R. Merkl1.83114991LSep 13 · 08:00P. Hala1.83101211113L. Kolman1.831210291LSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182LSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00114991WSep 10 · 12:48L. Kolman2.2011117113M. Svitac1.61761161WSep 10 · 11:45M. Hajek1.831411881L. Kolman1.8316611113WSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113LSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac1.731111113L. Kolman2.009540LSep 9 · 16:38L. Kolman1.85311561T. Hucko1.8511811113
T. Hrstka10
WSep 16 · 10:45Z. Vasatko1.336111421T. Hrstka3.2511616113WAug 14 · 12:38P. Provaznik1.734660T. Hrstka2.001111113LAug 14 · 11:30T. Hrstka1.91981151P. Provaznik1.8011117113LAug 14 · 10:30T. Hrstka2.632111341M. Hajek1.44111311113LAug 14 · 09:30T. Hrstka2.103780L. Kolman1.671111113LAug 10 · 13:13T. Hrstka2.6381161172M. Svitac1.44119116113WAug 10 · 12:00T. Hrstka1.734111011113Z. Kuksa2.0011812762WAug 10 · 10:30P. Provaznik1.7312890T. Hrstka2.001411113LAug 10 · 10:00M. Svitac1.501111113T. Hrstka2.506890WJun 10 · 12:19F. Kubos3.0071111992T. Hrstka1.36117811113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.