TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12428261
Played Aug 14Finished
Tomas Hrstka
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
21111131311411––
Miroslav Hajek
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:54 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Hrstka above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 76 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Miroslav Hajek at 60.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hrstka 3–12 Miroslav Hajek Tomas Hrstka has won 3 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:54What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hajek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-12 in 15
Hajek
Correct
gap of 9 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrstka 1503 vs Hajek 1586
Hajek
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrstka 40% vs Hajek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrstka 60% vs Hajek 40%
Hrstka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrstka -2 · Hajek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Hajek) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hajek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrstka 2.63 / Hajek 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 68%
Edge (Hajek)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12428261
Hrstka2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 12 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back25% 5 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Hajek1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 66 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it75% 50 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrstka2wins
AwayHajek8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHajek leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrstka0%0 of 4
AwayHajek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrstka4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S2Hrstka2Hajek8n = 10Hajek took 8 of 10
S3Hrstka5Hajek5n = 10split evenly
S4Hrstka4Hajek5n = 9Hajek took 5 of 9
S5Hrstka1Hajek3n = 4Hajek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrstkaHajekHrstka − HajekBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.743.9−7.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrstkaHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime28 / 66 vs 366 / 67742.4%54.1%28 / 66 vs 366 / 677Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HajekHrstka 2.63/Hajek 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hajek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 10:30T. Hrstka302111341M. Hajek46111311113
LMay 14 · 10:15T. Hrstka29451281M. Hajek43111110113
LAug 21 · 10:30T. Hrstka47911111152M. Hajek4711137793
LMay 19 · 09:30T. Hrstka49121211862M. Hajek5510101311113
LApr 25 · 06:00T. Hrstka4011101091M. Hajek4161212113
WApr 16 · 11:45T. Hrstka48871111113M. Hajek4811119892
LApr 8 · 10:45T. Hrstka239770M. Hajek331111113
LMar 24 · 13:50T. Hrstka23114531M. Hajek4181111113
WMar 24 · 11:45T. Hrstka4171111123M. Hajek341176101
LMar 14 · 08:00T. Hrstka3711731242M. Hajek518111110113
T. Hrstka10
WSep 16 · 10:45Z. Vasatko1.336111421T. Hrstka3.2511616113WSep 16 · 09:15L. Kolman1.50111061192T. Hrstka2.50512117113WAug 14 · 12:38P. Provaznik1.734660T. Hrstka2.001111113LAug 14 · 11:30T. Hrstka1.91981151P. Provaznik1.8011117113LAug 14 · 09:30T. Hrstka2.103780L. Kolman1.671111113LAug 10 · 13:13T. Hrstka2.6381161172M. Svitac1.44119116113WAug 10 · 12:00T. Hrstka1.734111011113Z. Kuksa2.0011812762WAug 10 · 10:30P. Provaznik1.7312890T. Hrstka2.001411113LAug 10 · 10:00M. Svitac1.501111113T. Hrstka2.506890WJun 10 · 12:19F. Kubos3.0071111992T. Hrstka1.36117811113
M. Hajek10
LSep 15 · 16:49D. Marasek1.831211113M. Hajek1.8310790WSep 15 · 15:45M. Hajek1.831117113D. Marasek1.8391570LSep 15 · 14:15Z. Vasatko2.0091111133M. Hajek1.731189111WSep 15 · 13:45P. Semrad1.671371011112M. Hajek2.101111127133LSep 14 · 12:24M. Hajek1.6151281192Z. Vasatko2.201110117113WSep 14 · 11:15Z. Vasatko2.10511961M. Hajek1.6711911113WSep 14 · 10:45M. Hajek1.6111149113M. Svitac2.205121141WSep 14 · 09:45M. Hajek1.801111113L. Smazik1.918870WSep 12 · 13:09Z. Vasatko1.809970M. Hajek1.91111193LSep 12 · 12:00M. Hajek1.7371111462Z. Vasatko2.00119711113
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