TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12392463
Played Aug 10Finished
Petr Provaznik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214811911––––
Tomas Hrstka
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Provaznik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Tomas Hrstka below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 65 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Petr Provaznik at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Petr Provaznik 11–6 Tomas Hrstka Tomas Hrstka has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Provaznik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-6 in 17
Provaznik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1559 vs Hrstka 1525
Provaznik
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 60% vs Hrstka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 70% vs Hrstka 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik +2 · Hrstka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Provaznik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.73 / Hrstka 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Provaznik)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12392463
Provaznik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 51 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it71% 37 of 52
Hrstka2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 11 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik6wins
AwayHrstka4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderProvaznik leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik100%5 of 5
AwayHrstka80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik5Hrstka5n = 10split evenly
S2Provaznik6Hrstka4n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S3Provaznik5Hrstka5n = 10split evenly
S4Provaznik5Hrstka3n = 8Provaznik took 5 of 8
S5Provaznik3Hrstka3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikHrstkaP − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.240.9−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikHrstkaBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 475 vs 26 / 6147.6%42.6%226 / 475 vs 26 / 61Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikProvaznik 1.73/Hrstka 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hrstka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 21 · 12:29P. Provaznik54119117163T. Hrstka49711611142
WOct 21 · 09:30P. Provaznik47117411143T. Hrstka46411118122
WSep 4 · 08:34P. Provaznik4181111113T. Hrstka31116861
WSep 4 · 05:30P. Provaznik43111110113T. Hrstka33751291
LAug 21 · 12:37P. Provaznik4391111932T. Hrstka48118711113
WAug 21 · 09:30P. Provaznik331111113T. Hrstka237880
LJun 6 · 08:30P. Provaznik2031070T. Hrstka341112113
LJun 6 · 05:30P. Provaznik3921291152T. Hrstka491110116113
LMay 15 · 08:33P. Provaznik3874121142T. Hrstka511111108113
WMay 15 · 05:30P. Provaznik44111147113T. Hrstka4589111162
P. Provaznik10
WSep 10 · 20:20P. Provaznik—7121111113O. Chadima—11148892WSep 10 · 19:15O. Chadima2.50126361P. Provaznik1.50101111113LSep 10 · 18:45P. Provaznik1.407511101Z. Kuksa2.7511119102LSep 10 · 17:45P. Provaznik1.831011961V. Herrmann1.8312911113WSep 9 · 17:03P. Hala1.5071131192P. Provaznik2.50119118113WSep 9 · 15:30P. Provaznik2.2513411113T. Hucko1.571111771LSep 9 · 14:30P. Provaznik2.503111051P. Hala1.5011512113WSep 9 · 13:30P. Provaznik2.25912611113L. Kolman1.57111011732WSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113LSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113
T. Hrstka10
WSep 16 · 10:45Z. Vasatko1.336111421T. Hrstka3.2511616113WSep 16 · 09:15L. Kolman1.50111061192T. Hrstka2.50512117113WAug 14 · 12:38P. Provaznik1.734660T. Hrstka2.001111113LAug 14 · 11:30T. Hrstka1.91981151P. Provaznik1.8011117113LAug 14 · 10:30T. Hrstka2.632111341M. Hajek1.44111311113LAug 14 · 09:30T. Hrstka2.103780L. Kolman1.671111113LAug 10 · 13:13T. Hrstka2.6381161172M. Svitac1.44119116113WAug 10 · 12:00T. Hrstka1.734111011113Z. Kuksa2.0011812762LAug 10 · 10:00M. Svitac1.501111113T. Hrstka2.506890WJun 10 · 12:19F. Kubos3.0071111992T. Hrstka1.36117811113
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