TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12427765
Played Aug 14Finished
Tomas Hrstka
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911811117511––
Petr Provaznik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Provaznik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Hrstka above · Petr Provaznik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Petr Provaznik at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hrstka 7–11 Petr Provaznik Tomas Hrstka has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:45What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Provaznik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Provaznik
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrstka 1503 vs Provaznik 1548
Provaznik
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrstka 40% vs Provaznik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrstka 50% vs Provaznik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrstka -3 · Provaznik -1
Hrstka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Provaznik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrstka 1.91 / Provaznik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Provaznik)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12427765
Hrstka1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 12 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back25% 5 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Provaznik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 56 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it86% 30 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it71% 39 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrstka5wins
AwayProvaznik5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrstka83.3%5 of 6
AwayProvaznik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrstka6Provaznik4n = 10Hrstka took 6 of 10
S2Hrstka5Provaznik5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrstka5Provaznik5n = 10split evenly
S4Hrstka2Provaznik5n = 7Provaznik took 5 of 7
S5Hrstka3Provaznik2n = 5Hrstka took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrstkaProvaznikH − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.038.7+1.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrstkaProvaznikBasisWin rate · lifetime28 / 66 vs 229 / 47942.4%47.8%28 / 66 vs 229 / 479Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikHrstka 1.91/Provaznik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 10 · 10:30T. Hrstka361411113P. Provaznik2912890
LOct 21 · 12:29T. Hrstka49711611142P. Provaznik54119117163
LOct 21 · 09:30T. Hrstka46411118122P. Provaznik47117411143
LSep 4 · 08:34T. Hrstka31116861P. Provaznik4181111113
LSep 4 · 05:30T. Hrstka33751291P. Provaznik43111110113
WAug 21 · 12:37T. Hrstka48118711113P. Provaznik4391111932
LAug 21 · 09:30T. Hrstka237880P. Provaznik331111113
WJun 6 · 08:30T. Hrstka341112113P. Provaznik2031070
WJun 6 · 05:30T. Hrstka491110116113P. Provaznik3921291152
WMay 15 · 08:33T. Hrstka511111108113P. Provaznik3874121142
T. Hrstka10
WSep 16 · 10:45Z. Vasatko1.336111421T. Hrstka3.2511616113WSep 16 · 09:15L. Kolman1.50111061192T. Hrstka2.50512117113WAug 14 · 12:38P. Provaznik1.734660T. Hrstka2.001111113LAug 14 · 10:30T. Hrstka2.632111341M. Hajek1.44111311113LAug 14 · 09:30T. Hrstka2.103780L. Kolman1.671111113LAug 10 · 13:13T. Hrstka2.6381161172M. Svitac1.44119116113WAug 10 · 12:00T. Hrstka1.734111011113Z. Kuksa2.0011812762WAug 10 · 10:30P. Provaznik1.7312890T. Hrstka2.001411113LAug 10 · 10:00M. Svitac1.501111113T. Hrstka2.506890WJun 10 · 12:19F. Kubos3.0071111992T. Hrstka1.36117811113
P. Provaznik10
WSep 10 · 20:20P. Provaznik—7121111113O. Chadima—11148892WSep 10 · 19:15O. Chadima2.50126361P. Provaznik1.50101111113LSep 10 · 18:45P. Provaznik1.407511101Z. Kuksa2.7511119102LSep 10 · 17:45P. Provaznik1.831011961V. Herrmann1.8312911113WSep 9 · 17:03P. Hala1.5071131192P. Provaznik2.50119118113WSep 9 · 15:30P. Provaznik2.2513411113T. Hucko1.571111771LSep 9 · 14:30P. Provaznik2.503111051P. Hala1.5011512113WSep 9 · 13:30P. Provaznik2.25912611113L. Kolman1.57111011732LAug 14 · 12:38P. Provaznik1.734660T. Hrstka2.001111113LAug 10 · 10:30P. Provaznik1.7312890T. Hrstka2.001411113
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