TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12392194
Played Aug 10Finished
Matej Svitac
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118119––––
Tomas Hrstka
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Hrstka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Tomas Hrstka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Hrstka at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 3–3 Tomas Hrstka Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:11What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Svitac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svitac 1649 vs Hrstka 1525
Svitac
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svitac 60% vs Hrstka 80%
Hrstka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svitac 50% vs Hrstka 70%
Hrstka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svitac +2 · Hrstka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Svitac) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrstka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 1.50 / Hrstka 2.50
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Svitac)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12392194
Svitac1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 56 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it74% 43 of 58
Hrstka2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 11 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSvitac3wins
AwayHrstka3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac66.7%2 of 3
AwayHrstka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac3Hrstka3n = 6split evenly
S2Svitac1Hrstka5n = 6Hrstka took 5 of 6
S3Svitac4Hrstka2n = 6Svitac took 4 of 6
S4Svitac2Hrstka2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSvitacHrstkaS − HBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match34.034.8−0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacHrstkaBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 374 vs 26 / 6053.2%43.3%199 / 374 vs 26 / 60Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSvitac 1.50/Hrstka 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJun 10 · 10:15M. Svitac48871111113T. Hrstka4111116942
LJun 1 · 09:30M. Svitac357711101T. Hrstka4311119123
WMay 19 · 09:30M. Svitac351111133T. Hrstka2467110
LMay 14 · 11:15M. Svitac27116371T. Hrstka3851111113
WJun 26 · 11:45M. Svitac3711511103T. Hrstka30711661
LJan 13 · 12:45M. Svitac224990T. Hrstka331111113
M. Svitac10
LSep 14 · 12:53M. Svitac1.83911491L. Smazik1.8311811113WSep 14 · 11:45L. Smazik1.8311351152M. Svitac1.83511119113LSep 14 · 10:45M. Hajek1.6111149113M. Svitac2.205121141LSep 14 · 09:15Z. Vasatko1.731111113M. Svitac2.007650LSep 10 · 12:48L. Kolman2.2011117113M. Svitac1.61761161WSep 10 · 11:15M. Svitac2.1013119113L. Smazik1.671181181WSep 10 · 10:15M. Svitac2.25811911113M. Hajek1.5711911832WSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac1.731111113L. Kolman2.009540WSep 8 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.7395121162M. Svitac2.001111108113WSep 8 · 11:15T. Kanka1.911312491M. Svitac1.80111411113
T. Hrstka10
WSep 16 · 10:45Z. Vasatko1.336111421T. Hrstka3.2511616113WSep 16 · 09:15L. Kolman1.50111061192T. Hrstka2.50512117113WAug 14 · 12:38P. Provaznik1.734660T. Hrstka2.001111113LAug 14 · 11:30T. Hrstka1.91981151P. Provaznik1.8011117113LAug 14 · 10:30T. Hrstka2.632111341M. Hajek1.44111311113LAug 14 · 09:30T. Hrstka2.103780L. Kolman1.671111113LAug 10 · 13:13T. Hrstka2.6381161172M. Svitac1.44119116113WAug 10 · 12:00T. Hrstka1.734111011113Z. Kuksa2.0011812762WAug 10 · 10:30P. Provaznik1.7312890T. Hrstka2.001411113WJun 10 · 12:19F. Kubos3.0071111992T. Hrstka1.36117811113
Upcoming Matches
M. Svitac
Nothing scheduled
T. Hrstka
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