TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12427774
Played Aug 14Finished
Tomas Hrstka
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311711811––––
Leon Kolman
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:46 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Hrstka above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 51 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Leon Kolman at 55.8%
51 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hrstka 1–2 Leon Kolman Tomas Hrstka has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:46What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kolman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrstka 1534 vs Kolman 1607
Kolman
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrstka 60% vs Kolman 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrstka 70% vs Kolman 30%
Hrstka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrstka -1 · Kolman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrstka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrstka 2.10 / Kolman 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kolman)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12427774
Hrstka2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 12 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back25% 5 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Kolman1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 104 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it86% 48 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it66% 78 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHrstka1wins
AwayKolman2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKolman leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrstkan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKolman66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrstka0Kolman3n = 3Kolman took 3 of 3
S2Hrstka0Kolman3n = 3Kolman took 3 of 3
S3Hrstka3Kolman0n = 3Hrstka took 3 of 3
S4Hrstka2Kolman1n = 3Hrstka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHrstkaKolmanH − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match43.347.7−4.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrstkaKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime28 / 64 vs 347 / 65543.8%53%28 / 64 vs 347 / 655Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.840.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanHrstka 2.10/Kolman 1.67
Hit
What we said
55.8%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WMar 24 · 10:15T. Hrstka49591113113L. Kolman47111161182
LMar 18 · 10:30T. Hrstka344812101L. Kolman44111110123
LSep 18 · 11:42T. Hrstka471012111132L. Kolman52121487113
T. Hrstka10
WSep 16 · 10:45Z. Vasatko1.336111421T. Hrstka3.2511616113WSep 16 · 09:15L. Kolman1.50111061192T. Hrstka2.50512117113WAug 14 · 12:38P. Provaznik1.734660T. Hrstka2.001111113LAug 14 · 11:30T. Hrstka1.91981151P. Provaznik1.8011117113LAug 14 · 10:30T. Hrstka2.632111341M. Hajek1.44111311113LAug 10 · 13:13T. Hrstka2.6381161172M. Svitac1.44119116113WAug 10 · 12:00T. Hrstka1.734111011113Z. Kuksa2.0011812762WAug 10 · 10:30P. Provaznik1.7312890T. Hrstka2.001411113LAug 10 · 10:00M. Svitac1.501111113T. Hrstka2.506890WJun 10 · 12:19F. Kubos3.0071111992T. Hrstka1.36117811113
L. Kolman10
LSep 16 · 11:15L. Kolman1.67126671Z. Vasatko2.10101111113LSep 16 · 10:15L. Kolman1.731011681L. Smazik2.0012711113LSep 16 · 09:15L. Kolman1.50111061192T. Hrstka2.50512117113WSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman1.8351111113R. Merkl1.83114991LSep 13 · 08:00P. Hala1.83101211113L. Kolman1.831210291LSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182LSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00114991WSep 10 · 12:48L. Kolman2.2011117113M. Svitac1.61761161WSep 10 · 11:45M. Hajek1.831411881L. Kolman1.8316611113WSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113
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