TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13136323
Played Sep 16Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.86
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171210511117––
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:44 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
1171210511117––
H2H Sebastian Szostok 11–15 Marek Tkocz Sebastian Szostok has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:44What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-15 in 26
Tkocz
Wrong
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1526 vs Tkocz 1411
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 60% vs Tkocz 80%
Tkocz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 60% vs Tkocz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok +3 · Tkocz +1
Szostok
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.86 / Tkocz 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Szostok)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13136323
Szostok1.86
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog46% won 68 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 45
Tkocz1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 300 of 447
Up 2–0, closes it95% 171 of 181
Up 1–0, closes it84% 247 of 295
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok4wins
AwayTkocz6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkocz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok66.7%2 of 3
AwayTkocz71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok3Tkocz7n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S2Szostok5Tkocz5n = 10split evenly
S3Szostok4Tkocz6n = 10Tkocz took 6 of 10
S4Szostok4Tkocz3n = 7Szostok took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokTkoczS − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.038.7−2.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime920 / 1572 vs 772 / 116158.5%66.5%920 / 1572 vs 772 / 1161Avg sets wonper match2.32.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.86/Tkocz 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 16:50S. Szostok33713761M. Tkocz44111111113
LJun 28 · 11:50S. Szostok30511681M. Tkocz4111811113
WJun 28 · 03:50S. Szostok47712611113M. Tkocz46111011772
LMar 25 · 03:45S. Szostok156360M. Tkocz331111113
WJan 1 · 06:20S. Szostok44111111113M. Tkocz30134671
WJan 1 · 24:50S. Szostok52111211183M. Tkocz437146161
LDec 31 · 18:25S. Szostok4091111272M. Tkocz481111510113
LDec 31 · 24:10S. Szostok2511590M. Tkocz351311113
WNov 12 · 03:20S. Szostok331111113M. Tkocz196940
LNov 11 · 21:20S. Szostok4111105151M. Tkocz4881211173
S. Szostok10
WSep 16 · 24:00S. Szostok1.881012117113P. Polok1.82121091162WSep 15 · 22:25S. Szostok1.90315611113J. Orszulik1.80111311862WSep 15 · 21:10S. Szostok1.711111113M. Lebek2.009990LSep 15 · 05:05K. Adamus2.0011611113S. Szostok1.71711791LSep 15 · 03:55S. Szostok2.17771211122G. Marud1.621111105143LSep 15 · 02:10O. Jadach1.801210311113S. Szostok1.80101211452WSep 15 · 01:10I. Szymanski4.0112791152S. Szostok1.211011118113LSep 14 · 23:50K. Schaniel2.0911118113S. Szostok1.67681191WSep 14 · 23:05O. Jadach1.81111211562S. Szostok1.83914611113WSep 14 · 21:55S. Szostok1.58511811113G. Marud2.1411811642
M. Tkocz10
LSep 16 · 02:00J. Orszulik2.2511511113M. Tkocz1.55411971WSep 16 · 24:25M. Tkocz1.1071111123K. Kowalski5.401145101LSep 15 · 22:50M. Tkocz1.746680M. Lebek1.951111113WSep 15 · 22:00P. Polok1.806111071M. Tkocz1.9111712113WSep 15 · 20:20M. Tkocz1.77111111113K. Juszczyk1.93137541WSep 15 · 18:45J. Orszulik2.42116361M. Tkocz1.4641111113WSep 15 · 18:00R. Adach3.3536110M. Tkocz1.251111133LSep 15 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.858131171P. Polok1.8511159113WSep 15 · 16:00M. Tkocz1.63811911113P. Kaczynski2.0511911492LSep 11 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.7167140P. Brozek2.001111163
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