TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130198
Played Sep 15Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
2.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71171112101151214
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:32 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
100 points played in total.
Set by set
71171112101151214
H2H Sebastian Szostok 27–18 Grzegorz Marud Grzegorz Marud has won 18 of their 45 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Szostok beat Marud 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:32What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (57%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-18 in 45
Szostok
Wrong
gap of 9 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1524 vs Marud 1477
Szostok
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 60% vs Marud 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 60% vs Marud 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok -1 · Marud +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (46%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 2.17 / Marud 1.62
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Marud)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13130198
Szostok2.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 68 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 45
Marud1.62
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 126 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it86% 76 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it71% 102 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok6wins
AwayMarud4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok80%4 of 5
AwayMarud60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok5Marud5n = 10split evenly
S2Szostok7Marud3n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S3Szostok5Marud5n = 10split evenly
S4Szostok5Marud4n = 9Szostok took 5 of 9
S5Szostok2Marud2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokMarudS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.039.4+2.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime923 / 1574 vs 644 / 136358.6%47.3%923 / 1574 vs 644 / 1363Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudSzostok 2.17/Marud 1.62
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 21:55S. Szostok46511811113G. Marud4011811642
LSep 1 · 23:20S. Szostok56913111492G. Marud561111716113
LSep 1 · 17:20S. Szostok32951171G. Marud4111118113
WAug 31 · 03:05S. Szostok4161113113G. Marud401191191
WAug 30 · 21:05S. Szostok4011117113G. Marud30671161
LJul 21 · 16:25S. Szostok381189101G. Marud4281111123
WJul 13 · 24:20S. Szostok331111113G. Marud268990
WJul 12 · 20:20S. Szostok4213117113G. Marud341181141
LMay 26 · 02:20S. Szostok4081141162G. Marud43114116113
WMay 25 · 18:20S. Szostok521191110113G. Marud4281151262
S. Szostok10
LSep 15 · 05:05K. Adamus2.0011611113S. Szostok1.71711791LSep 15 · 02:10O. Jadach1.801210311113S. Szostok1.80101211452WSep 15 · 01:10I. Szymanski4.0112791152S. Szostok1.211011118113LSep 14 · 23:50K. Schaniel2.0911118113S. Szostok1.67681191WSep 14 · 23:05O. Jadach1.81111211562S. Szostok1.83914611113WSep 14 · 21:55S. Szostok1.58511811113G. Marud2.1411811642WSep 14 · 20:45K. Adamus2.0011581182S. Szostok1.71911118113LSep 14 · 19:30I. Szymanski4.551111710113S. Szostok1.1469111282WSep 14 · 17:55K. Schaniel2.35118101172S. Szostok1.48411125113WSep 13 · 14:40S. Szostok2.001111113W. Wojtaszczyk1.736860
G. Marud10
WSep 15 · 04:40I. Szymanski3.652850G. Marud1.211111113WSep 15 · 01:30K. Schaniel1.9711128942G. Marud1.689101111113LSep 15 · 24:50O. Jadach1.5712211113G. Marud2.161011701WSep 14 · 23:30K. Adamus1.70116871G. Marud1.9671111113WSep 14 · 22:40I. Szymanski3.65211491G. Marud1.2111511113LSep 14 · 21:55S. Szostok1.58511811113G. Marud2.1411811642LSep 14 · 19:55K. Schaniel2.009111411113G. Marud1.7111216382LSep 14 · 19:10K. Adamus1.8211118113G. Marud1.88771161WSep 14 · 17:30O. Jadach1.5721190G. Marud2.151113113WSep 14 · 04:40G. Marud1.711111133O. Vincenec2.0084110
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