TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130464
Played Sep 15Finished
Kacper Adamus
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117611117119––
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.71
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:31 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
117611117119––
H2H Kacper Adamus 18–25 Sebastian Szostok Kacper Adamus has won 18 of their 43 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Szostok beat Adamus 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:31What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Szostok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-25 in 43
Szostok
Wrong
gap of 7 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1440 vs Szostok 1511
Szostok
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 20% vs Szostok 40%
Szostok
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 50% vs Szostok 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -1 · Szostok -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Szostok)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 2.00 / Szostok 1.71
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Szostok)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13130464
Adamus2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 96 of 206
Down 0–1, comes back20% 20 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Szostok1.71
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite65% won 320 of 495
Up 2–0, closes it94% 122 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it79% 203 of 256
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus4wins
AwaySzostok6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus57.1%4 of 7
AwaySzostok100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus7Szostok3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S2Adamus4Szostok6n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S3Adamus3Szostok7n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S4Adamus4Szostok3n = 7Adamus took 4 of 7
S5Adamus1Szostok3n = 4Szostok took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusSzostokA − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.139.8−1.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime945 / 1748 vs 923 / 157554.1%58.6%945 / 1748 vs 923 / 1575Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.340.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokAdamus 2.00/Szostok 1.71
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 20:45K. Adamus4311581182S. Szostok50911118113
LSep 3 · 19:10K. Adamus38138891S. Szostok44111111113
WMay 30 · 13:55K. Adamus49117128113S. Szostok44511101172
LMay 30 · 07:55K. Adamus47117711112S. Szostok48711116133
WMay 20 · 13:30K. Adamus4011126113S. Szostok356101181
LMay 20 · 07:30K. Adamus4461112782S. Szostok501171011113
WMar 31 · 13:10K. Adamus331111113S. Szostok228680
WMar 31 · 05:30K. Adamus4211128113S. Szostok379101171
LJan 21 · 15:20K. Adamus2371150S. Szostok351113113
LJan 21 · 07:20K. Adamus228680S. Szostok331111113
K. Adamus10
LSep 15 · 03:30K. Adamus2.008480O. Jadach1.671111113WSep 15 · 01:50K. Adamus1.171111113I. Szymanski4.058870LSep 15 · 24:30K. Adamus1.8079100K. Schaniel1.851111123LSep 14 · 23:30K. Adamus1.70116871G. Marud1.9671111113LSep 14 · 22:20K. Schaniel2.1011117113K. Adamus1.60971171WSep 14 · 21:30O. Jadach1.85791111142K. Adamus1.85111197163LSep 14 · 20:45K. Adamus2.0011581182S. Szostok1.71911118113WSep 14 · 19:10K. Adamus1.8211118113G. Marud1.88771161WSep 14 · 18:20I. Szymanski4.256420K. Adamus1.161111113WSep 12 · 08:20R. Skotniczny1.839990K. Adamus1.811111113
S. Szostok10
LSep 15 · 03:55S. Szostok2.17771211122G. Marud1.621111105143LSep 15 · 02:10O. Jadach1.801210311113S. Szostok1.80101211452WSep 15 · 01:10I. Szymanski4.0112791152S. Szostok1.211011118113LSep 14 · 23:50K. Schaniel2.0911118113S. Szostok1.67681191WSep 14 · 23:05O. Jadach1.81111211562S. Szostok1.83914611113WSep 14 · 21:55S. Szostok1.58511811113G. Marud2.1411811642WSep 14 · 20:45K. Adamus2.0011581182S. Szostok1.71911118113LSep 14 · 19:30I. Szymanski4.551111710113S. Szostok1.1469111282WSep 14 · 17:55K. Schaniel2.35118101172S. Szostok1.48411125113WSep 13 · 14:40S. Szostok2.001111113W. Wojtaszczyk1.736860
Upcoming Matches
K. Adamus
Nothing scheduled
S. Szostok
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