TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130208
Played Sep 15Finished
Igor Szymanski
Home
4.01
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210711911118511
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.21
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:36 and never touched — 76.2% is still 76.2%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
76.2%
76.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
1210711911118511
H2H Igor Szymanski 3–11 Sebastian Szostok Igor Szymanski has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Szymanski beat Szostok 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:36What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.21 (77%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-11 in 14
Szostok
Correct
gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szymanski 1161 vs Szostok 1534
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 374 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szymanski 40% vs Szostok 60%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szymanski 30% vs Szostok 70%
Szostok
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szymanski -1 · Szostok -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (60%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzymanski 4.01 / Szostok 1.21
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Szostok)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13130208
Szymanski4.01
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog21% won 74 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back11% 25 of 237
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 170
Szostok1.21
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite65% won 316 of 489
Up 2–0, closes it94% 122 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it79% 203 of 256
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzymanski3wins
AwaySzostok7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzymanski50%2 of 4
AwaySzostok83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szymanski4Szostok6n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S2Szymanski4Szostok6n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S3Szymanski2Szostok8n = 10Szostok took 8 of 10
S4Szymanski2Szostok5n = 7Szostok took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzymanskiSzostokSzymanski − SzostokBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.438.0−7.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzymanskiSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 386 vs 923 / 157423.1%58.6%89 / 386 vs 923 / 1574Avg sets wonper match1.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match33.140.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzymanski 4.01/Szostok 1.21
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.2%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 19:30I. Szymanski501111710113S. Szostok4669111282
LSep 1 · 21:00I. Szymanski137150S. Szostok331111113
LSep 1 · 16:35I. Szymanski321174101S. Szostok4171111123
LAug 18 · 22:55I. Szymanski137420S. Szostok331111113
LAug 9 · 23:30I. Szymanski102620S. Szostok331111113
WAug 9 · 19:10I. Szymanski4491111133S. Szostok361195111
LJul 24 · 12:15I. Szymanski30511771S. Szostok4011711113
WJul 24 · 08:35I. Szymanski4211812113S. Szostok388111091
LJul 10 · 16:40I. Szymanski389111081S. Szostok4011612113
LJul 10 · 10:40I. Szymanski32118761S. Szostok4071111113
I. Szymanski10
LSep 15 · 01:50K. Adamus1.171111113I. Szymanski4.058870WSep 15 · 24:10I. Szymanski4.60613914113O. Jadach1.131111111272LSep 14 · 22:40I. Szymanski3.65211491G. Marud1.2111511113WSep 14 · 21:05K. Schaniel1.267550I. Szymanski3.251111113LSep 14 · 20:20O. Jadach1.151111113I. Szymanski4.407620WSep 14 · 19:30I. Szymanski4.551111710113S. Szostok1.1469111282LSep 14 · 18:20I. Szymanski4.256420K. Adamus1.161111113LSep 14 · 02:45I. Szymanski4.708460P. Polok1.131111113LSep 14 · 01:10I. Szymanski2.303560G. Sawicki1.551111113WSep 14 · 24:00I. Szymanski1.801161211123R. Ogon1.90711149102
S. Szostok10
LSep 15 · 02:10O. Jadach1.801210311113S. Szostok1.80101211452LSep 14 · 23:50K. Schaniel2.0911118113S. Szostok1.67681191WSep 14 · 23:05O. Jadach1.81111211562S. Szostok1.83914611113WSep 14 · 21:55S. Szostok1.58511811113G. Marud2.1411811642WSep 14 · 20:45K. Adamus2.0011581182S. Szostok1.71911118113LSep 14 · 19:30I. Szymanski4.551111710113S. Szostok1.1469111282WSep 14 · 17:55K. Schaniel2.35118101172S. Szostok1.48411125113WSep 13 · 14:40S. Szostok2.001111113W. Wojtaszczyk1.736860LSep 13 · 13:05S. Szostok1.44117118192Z. Sobkow2.63611311213WSep 13 · 11:50S. Szostok1.80816117113M. Lach1.91111471182
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