TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119940
Played Sep 13Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111614117711118
Marcin Lach
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:03 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Szostok above · Marcin Lach below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 104 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Sebastian Szostok at 59.7%
104 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Szostok 5–2 Marcin Lach Marcin Lach has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Szostok
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1496 vs Lach 1405
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 60% vs Lach 40%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 40% vs Lach 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok +2 · Lach -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lach form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.80 / Lach 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Szostok)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13119940
Szostok1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 315 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it94% 122 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it80% 203 of 254
Lach1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 18 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSzostok5wins
AwayLach2wins
3 of 7 to a deciderSzostok leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostokn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLach33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok1Lach6n = 7Lach took 6 of 7
S2Szostok5Lach2n = 7Szostok took 5 of 7
S3Szostok6Lach1n = 7Szostok took 6 of 7
S4Szostok4Lach3n = 7Szostok took 4 of 7
S5Szostok2Lach1n = 3Szostok took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricSzostokLachS − LBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match42.042.1−0.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokLachBasisWin rate · lifetime920 / 1569 vs 144 / 23358.6%61.8%920 / 1569 vs 144 / 233Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.80/Lach 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 13 · 03:50S. Szostok48771111122M. Lach48111166143
LAug 23 · 10:10S. Szostok29811551M. Lach4211911113
WAug 23 · 07:45S. Szostok46911114113M. Lach4511971172
WAug 2 · 09:00S. Szostok3851111113M. Lach36118891
WAug 2 · 04:30S. Szostok3611311113M. Lach35911781
WJul 11 · 13:05S. Szostok55612188113M. Lach531110161152
WJul 11 · 06:55S. Szostok4281112113M. Lach361191061
S. Szostok10
WSep 13 · 10:10S. Szostok2.50111111113A. Cichocki1.50136941WSep 13 · 09:00S. Szostok1.831161011113J. Wieczerzak1.8381112772LSep 13 · 07:45A. Cichocki1.501111113S. Szostok2.507880LSep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.3891111113S. Szostok1.53116751WSep 13 · 06:05S. Szostok1.83111110113W. Wojtaszczyk1.83871271LSep 13 · 04:30S. Szostok1.83512851J. Wieczerzak1.83111011113LSep 13 · 03:50M. Lach2.10111166143S. Szostok1.67771111122LSep 11 · 16:20J. Pruszkowski1.74671111113S. Szostok1.9511115772WSep 11 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.85711110S. Szostok1.801113133LSep 11 · 14:45S. Szostok1.601011101182P. Kurek2.10124127113
M. Lach10
LSep 13 · 12:40A. Cichocki1.50101411113M. Lach2.501212451LSep 13 · 11:00M. Lach2.00761191W. Wojtaszczyk1.7311115113WSep 13 · 09:50M. Lach1.441111123Z. Sobkow2.6347100LSep 13 · 08:10M. Lach1.911110691J. Wieczerzak1.8081211113LSep 13 · 06:30A. Cichocki1.571711113M. Lach2.2515740WSep 13 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.381177111M. Lach1.5391111133LSep 13 · 04:55M. Lach2.108690W. Wojtaszczyk1.671111113WSep 13 · 03:50M. Lach2.10111166143S. Szostok1.67771111122LSep 12 · 17:05M. Lach1.859980W. Wojtaszczyk1.801111113WSep 12 · 15:30M. Lach1.7012619113D. Morawiec1.9610111791
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