TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119944
Played Sep 13Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113116119114––
Aleksander Cichocki
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:04 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeAleksander Cichocki to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSebastian Szostok above · Aleksander Cichocki below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 76 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Aleksander Cichocki at 61.6%
76 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Szostok 0–4 Aleksander Cichocki Sebastian Szostok has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Cichocki beat Szostok 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cichocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Cichocki
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1452 vs Cichocki 1581
Cichocki
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 40% vs Cichocki 80%
Cichocki
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 40% vs Cichocki 70%
Cichocki
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok +1 · Cichocki -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Cichocki) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cichocki form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 2.50 / Cichocki 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Cichocki)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13119944
Szostok2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 66 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back29% 25 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 44
Cichocki1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 84 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it91% 63 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSzostok0wins
AwayCichocki4wins
Cichocki leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostokn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayCichocki100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok0Cichocki4n = 4Cichocki took 4 of 4
S2Szostok0Cichocki4n = 4Cichocki took 4 of 4
S3Szostok2Cichocki2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricSzostokCichockiS − CBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match31.537.8−6.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokCichockiBasisWin rate · lifetime919 / 1568 vs 120 / 18858.6%63.8%919 / 1568 vs 120 / 188Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CichockiSzostok 2.50/Cichocki 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Cichocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 13 · 07:45S. Szostok237880A. Cichocki331111113
LAug 23 · 13:05S. Szostok28111430A. Cichocki401316113
LAug 23 · 06:55S. Szostok387111191A. Cichocki3911134113
LJan 10 · 21:05S. Szostok37891191A. Cichocki3911116113
S. Szostok10
WSep 13 · 09:00S. Szostok1.831161011113J. Wieczerzak1.8381112772LSep 13 · 07:45A. Cichocki1.501111113S. Szostok2.507880LSep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.3891111113S. Szostok1.53116751WSep 13 · 06:05S. Szostok1.83111110113W. Wojtaszczyk1.83871271LSep 13 · 04:30S. Szostok1.83512851J. Wieczerzak1.83111011113LSep 13 · 03:50M. Lach2.10111166143S. Szostok1.67771111122LSep 11 · 16:20J. Pruszkowski1.74671111113S. Szostok1.9511115772WSep 11 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.85711110S. Szostok1.801113133LSep 11 · 14:45S. Szostok1.601011101182P. Kurek2.10124127113WSep 11 · 13:10S. Szostok1.851111113G. Wichowski1.809770
A. Cichocki10
LSep 13 · 09:25A. Cichocki1.40741191W. Wojtaszczyk2.7511119113WSep 13 · 07:45A. Cichocki1.501111113S. Szostok2.507880WSep 13 · 06:30A. Cichocki1.571711113M. Lach2.2515740WSep 13 · 05:15A. Cichocki1.671512116113J. Wieczerzak2.10171091182WSep 13 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.7511611952A. Cichocki1.40511311113WSep 13 · 03:25A. Cichocki1.57101111113W. Wojtaszczyk2.25123541WSep 12 · 14:20A. Cichocki1.3351111113M. Paszkiewicz3.25115991LSep 12 · 12:40K. Juszczyk2.501111411113A. Cichocki1.5091311882WSep 12 · 11:50W. Urban2.75811811102A. Cichocki1.40119118123LSep 12 · 11:00A. Cichocki1.44510111382Z. Sobkow2.631112511113
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