TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119697
Played Sep 13Finished
Marcin Lach
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171176116111412
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:53 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcin Lach above · Sebastian Szostok below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 96 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Sebastian Szostok at 70.7%
96 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Lach 1–5 Sebastian Szostok Marcin Lach has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Szostok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Szostok
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lach 1435 vs Szostok 1481
Szostok
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lach 80% vs Szostok 60%
Lach
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lach 50% vs Szostok 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lach -1 · Szostok -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lach form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLach 2.10 / Szostok 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Szostok)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13119697
Lach2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 17 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Szostok1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 315 of 485
Up 2–0, closes it94% 122 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it80% 203 of 254
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeLach1wins
AwaySzostok5wins
2 of 6 to a deciderSzostok leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLach20%1 of 5
AwaySzostokn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lach5Szostok1n = 6Lach took 5 of 6
S2Lach1Szostok5n = 6Szostok took 5 of 6
S3Lach1Szostok5n = 6Szostok took 5 of 6
S4Lach3Szostok3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricLachSzostokL − SBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match41.241.0+0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLachSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 226 vs 920 / 156662.4%58.8%141 / 226 vs 920 / 1566Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokLach 2.10/Szostok 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 23 · 10:10M. Lach4211911113S. Szostok29811551
LAug 23 · 07:45M. Lach4511971172S. Szostok46911114113
LAug 2 · 09:00M. Lach36118891S. Szostok3851111113
LAug 2 · 04:30M. Lach35911781S. Szostok3611311113
LJul 11 · 13:05M. Lach531110161152S. Szostok55612188113
LJul 11 · 06:55M. Lach361191061S. Szostok4281112113
M. Lach10
LSep 13 · 04:55M. Lach2.108690W. Wojtaszczyk1.671111113LSep 12 · 17:05M. Lach1.859980W. Wojtaszczyk1.801111113WSep 12 · 15:30M. Lach1.7012619113D. Morawiec1.9610111791WSep 12 · 14:20M. Lach1.761111113J. Wieczerzak1.908990WSep 12 · 12:45M. Lach1.8311115113M. Oracz1.81991161WSep 12 · 11:30M. Lach1.831111113F. Witczak1.836970LSep 12 · 10:20M. Oracz1.861111153M. Lach1.8073130WSep 12 · 09:30D. Morawiec2.02611621M. Lach1.6511611113LSep 12 · 08:45M. Lach1.908911111W. Wojtaszczyk1.8011119133LSep 12 · 07:10M. Lach1.9011119992F. Witczak1.80981111113
S. Szostok10
LSep 13 · 04:30S. Szostok1.83512851J. Wieczerzak1.83111011113LSep 11 · 16:20J. Pruszkowski1.74671111113S. Szostok1.9511115772WSep 11 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.85711110S. Szostok1.801113133LSep 11 · 14:45S. Szostok1.601011101182P. Kurek2.10124127113WSep 11 · 13:10S. Szostok1.851111113G. Wichowski1.809770WSep 11 · 12:20P. Mecik2.7510911111S. Szostok1.3612115133WSep 11 · 11:05S. Szostok1.601111113P. Kurek2.108670LSep 11 · 09:30S. Szostok1.866101131R. Skotniczny1.8011124113LSep 11 · 08:20S. Szostok1.38711111152P. Mecik2.65119139113LSep 11 · 06:45S. Szostok1.87129111272J. Pruszkowski1.831411710113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lach
Sep 13 · 05:40M. Lach1.57Z. Sobkow2.25—Sep 13 · 06:30M. Lach2.25A. Cichocki1.57—Sep 13 · 08:10M. Lach1.91J. Wieczerzak1.80—Sep 13 · 09:50M. Lach1.57Z. Sobkow2.25—Sep 13 · 11:00M. Lach2.10W. Wojtaszczyk1.67—Sep 13 · 11:50M. Lach2.10S. Szostok1.67—Sep 13 · 12:40M. Lach2.25A. Cichocki1.57—Sep 13 · 14:20M. Lach1.91J. Wieczerzak1.80—
S. Szostok
Sep 13 · 06:05S. Szostok1.83W. Wojtaszczyk1.83—Sep 13 · 06:55S. Szostok1.53Z. Sobkow2.38—Sep 13 · 07:45S. Szostok2.38A. Cichocki1.53—Sep 13 · 09:00S. Szostok1.83J. Wieczerzak1.83—Sep 13 · 10:10S. Szostok2.38A. Cichocki1.53—Sep 13 · 11:50S. Szostok1.67M. Lach2.10—Sep 13 · 13:05S. Szostok1.53Z. Sobkow2.38—Sep 13 · 14:40S. Szostok1.83W. Wojtaszczyk1.83—
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